Forex/Futures ST for Week 6/17-6/21

greenback

Okay, the bullish bet is going well ...
Key time as SPX is challenging the S/R:

greenback

Well, in the end, traders are hesitated ... MA20 is still ahead, except Russell.

greenback

But bonds are turning bearish ... Not sure now ... are they foretelling the outcome of FOMC on Wed already?

aimei

感到　就是卖

葡萄柚

Laoda, does bond market tend to tell more truth than the stock market?

greenback

葡萄柚 发表于 2013-6-17 08:49 PM
Laoda, does bond market tend to tell more truth than the stock market?

Well, if you look at Japan. I don't know ... Can you say they are plain stupid and can't wait just for another day?

Maybe traders/investors start to look beyond tapering on Mon ... i.e. we will have the first taper in the fall for sure. However this doesn't mean FED will keep reducing QE by a fixed amount PER MONTH. Instead, FED needs to wait to see how economy/market responses to the first tapering and reassess. Note too this is reversible, i.e. tapering can be reversed if the market goes south.

hahaa

greenback

Woke up by the little one. Looks like equities want to break out ... but bonds are breaking down ... confusing ...

greenback

JPY carry traders are telling us something ...

greenback

Virtually no pullback on the hourly chart ... Amazing! I guess yesterday's misinterpretation of the FT comment somewhat caused this ... usually pre-FED rally is not this strong.

greenback

Fed day next. No need to do any analysis. It's essentially a bet by now ... Just sit tight and hold your positions/no positions.

I don't want to pretend I can predict its outcome. If you are in cash, you can set a stop buy/sell at the ends of the trading range ...

greenback

Okay, I just find some time for the daily recap. Still in the pain of optimizing, testing, and simulating real-time auto-traders. I got another auto-logout from IB due to my overlook. Got to be very careful next time.

As we reviewed yesterday, we should've been watching the show from the side line during the day time. The moves were violent since the FED is more hawkish than most analysts have been hoping for in the last week. So we got a breakdown instead. If you are now in short, congratulations!

We are not comfortable with shorting equity because less QE is only a result from a rosier economy, so the short trade asks for too much in timing. We'll pass. These are being taken care of by auto-traders.

Instead we had been thinking about shorting bonds, but they are now too close to the previous S/R levels, i.e. 10yr rate is close to the high of 2.4% during the last two years. Got to be careful.

The trade we picked eventually was to long USD, or shorting JPY/EUR ... This is to follow the philosophy of dancing with central bankers again. Their breakouts were amazingly strong today. We were waiting very patiently throughout the day to assess their strength and weakness. We finally got in shorting 6J during the Japanese trading hours when USD/JPY broke out from a ascending triangle on the 15m chart. We are now with the ATR trailing stop loss on the 40m chart. Let's hope for the best.

greenback

Here is the daily charts for currencies. There are many good entries in these majors. Should be all caught if my auto-traders are running ...

greenback

Let's don't embarrass bulls by showing the equity charts any more. It's plain bearish ...

The only thing up is USD if I remember correctly ...

greenback

The only thing that can hedge the equity right now is to LONG USD ... or short EURO etc.

greenback

All equity indices are at MA20 in the weekly chart ... NIKKEI leads in this round's correction and rebound ... might see a higher high in the hourly chart early next week.