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[技术分析] Trading Diary

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发表于 2013-2-28 06:06 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


本帖最后由 ddd 于 2013-2-28 03:07 PM 编辑



Tomorrow will be bull / bear critical, as we seemed to have had a truncated w5, assuming tomorrow's trading corrective. Under the bullish scenario the high in March could be in the 1550 - 70 range. However, if tomorrow proves to be impulsive down, then back to the 1470 - 60 area is just the first target. Under the bearish scenario, going straight down below 1400 is possible. At end of day, I'm still hopeful that we're not ready for that bearish count, just yet. Nonetheless, BE PREPARED (to load up from the bottom).

Trading wise, I entered long within the first hour, and had a relatively smooth ride up. But the late afternoon's "truncation" caught me off guard, and cut my profit in half. Worse, the planned short from above 1526 didn't materialize. Well, we just couldn't have it all, could we?

Will not be chasing this drop first thing tomorrow, but simply observe the trading pattern for the first leg down.

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发表于 2013-2-28 06:09 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2013-2-28 06:14 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2013-2-28 07:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2013-2-28 07:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2013-2-28 08:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
CNBC: so far in 2013, DJI : all mondays (skipped 2 holidays) all red, all fridays green.
不适用于SPX, 有时侯和DJI不一样.   

希望DJI明天绿, 冲14165.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-2-28 09:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
90ufo 发表于 2013-2-28 05:10 PM
CNBC: so far in 2013, DJI : all mondays (skipped 2 holidays) all red, all fridays green.
不适用于S ...

How come my DJI peak was 14198?
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-2-28 09:17 PM | 显示全部楼层
Also, 1st of month supposedly bullish, with all that fresh cash? (hint source: CNBC)
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发表于 2013-2-28 09:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
大盘走的惊心动魄。真是W4 is good for DT.
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发表于 2013-2-28 11:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
ddd 发表于 2013-2-28 08:15 PM
How come my DJI peak was 14198?

intra-day high was 2007Oct11 14198, closing high was 207Oct09 14164.5
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发表于 2013-2-28 11:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
ddd 发表于 2013-2-28 08:17 PM
Also, 1st of month supposedly bullish, with all that fresh cash? (hint source: CNBC)

我也怀疑会高开,特别今天最后30秒打下5个点。
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发表于 2013-2-28 11:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-3-1 12:12 AM | 显示全部楼层
Just to show what's in my mind if we were going to the baby bear case and have a five wave down to complete the c wave of 4, in the next few days. Again, I would give it only 38.2% chance, mainly because DJI and DJT both wanted to go higher today. And that level, if we were going to, can be a very good place trying to trade up. There is a case for the bigger bear, but I'm thinking that bear is still in his hibernation.

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-3-1 12:18 AM | 显示全部楼层
Fan8an 发表于 2013-2-28 06:47 PM
大盘走的惊心动魄。真是W4 is good for DT.

也有人try very hard to avoid W2 and W4 altogether.
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发表于 2013-3-1 12:32 AM | 显示全部楼层
thanks
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发表于 2013-3-1 01:48 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2013-3-1 09:40 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 90ufo 于 2013-3-1 08:45 AM 编辑

sigh, seems bear case is true.
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