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发表于 2013-2-18 06:03 PM
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AMZN doesn't look good.
Some growth funds may dump it like what they did to Apple stock. Apple stock now is picked by some value funds. Amazon will not be picked by any value funds if it's dumped by growth funds.
The trigger of this dumping could be the next earning. I think its revenue growth will be less than 20%. Overall 2013 revenue growth may be as low as 15%. 15% growth year over year is not good enough as a growth stock. Here are the reasons why its growth will be lower.
* Its revenue is already too big. Hard to keep more than 20% growth.
* Sales tax impact is huge. Amazon starts collects sales tax in many states. These days most of consumers will shop somewhere else to avoid paying around 8-9% tax or just buy from Costco, BestBuy or Walmart/Target for the convenience of return and exchange. The sales tax is quite expensive when buy expensive items, such as high end cameras and lens. What I notice that people in east coast buy things from newegg.com or buy.com which are located in west, and people in west buy things from B&H, buydig, adorama and JR.
* Ebay is taking advantage of the sales tax issue. These days a lot of ebay daily deals are partner with buydig, adorama and newegg. Ebay simply can just make money from paypal transaction fee.
Amazon needs new story, growth story to convenience wall street funds to not dump it. |
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发表于 2013-2-12 01:45 PM
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发表于 2013-2-12 03:43 PM
发表于 2013-2-13 01:46 PM