Forex/Futures ST for Week 10/14 - 10/19

greenback

Too bad I was very busy in the later of last week ... Hope you had fun trading!

Unfortunately, the trends in all risk assets have changed when I was away from the market ... I now see bearish formations everywhere ... Of course, this doesn't mean we will go down straight from here. Let's take a look of each asset to see what is waiting for us this week.

Let's start from AUD: very likely we are revisiting the previous low before a rebound of some type ... but without making higher high, it's very bearish ...

greenback

EURO is better than AUD, but it's forming a wedge ... so far also bearish ...

greenback

Even GC is making a top now and is risk of breaking down ...

greenback

CL is still consolidating after its breakdown one step ahead of everyone else ...

greenback

Bulls should pray that bonds DO NOT break out ... it's posed to make new highs in both ZB and ZN with ZB now much stronger ...

greenback

Strictly speaking ES still at the triple S/R level ...

NQ has broken from the neckline and is consolidating at the previous S/R level ...

greenback

If you want to play bearish bets, make sure you closely watch news on the Spain bailout front ... this is the key FA reason that QE3 is being discounted and we can't make new higher high.

bucks

austinjoe

greenback 发表于 2012-10-14 08:15 PM
Bulls should pray that bonds DO NOT break out ... it's posed to make new highs in both ZB and ZN wit ...

Thanks a lot for your update. I'm newbie to bonds. Could you please explain the ZB / ZN correlation to ES? Does ZB rise means that 30yr rate will rise which is what Fed try their best to push down?

MFTHT

es 1412埋了颗地雷，明早11：00之前如果没有激活就撤。止损1406.
赌ES在这根红线处至少会弹一下。

greenback

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-14 10:45 PM
Thanks a lot for your update. I'm newbie to bonds. Could you please explain the ZB / ZN correlatio ...

US bonds are the the so-called risk-off assets, they have a negative correlation with ES/NQ, or other risk-on assets, most of the time. When ZB/ZN rise, the rates are going down.

austinjoe

greenback 发表于 2012-10-15 10:30 AM
US bonds are the the so-called risk-off assets, they have a negative correlation with ES/NQ, or  ...

Thank you for your answer. Now I have better understanding on Bonds now.

hunting

greenback

Price actions of risk assets are still not impressive enough to be out of danger.

Will update tonight ...

MFTHT

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-14 11:44 PM
es 1412埋了颗地雷，明早11：00之前如果没有激活就撤。止损1406.
赌ES在这根红线处至少会弹一下。

1416.5算是碰线了，可惜我放的太低了。ES如果过了这个三角，就可以望前高了。

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-15 09:26 PM
1416.5算是碰线了，可惜我放的太低了。ES如果过了这个三角，就可以望前高了。

There might be a higher low ...

greenback

Bonds are still holding well: ZB printed a higher low and ZN barely made a lower low, or revisited the previous low ...

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2012-10-15 11:39 PM
There might be a higher low ...

是啊。俺就在等这个HL之后牛熊的表现。牛牛有两种走法：一是先突破三角上线，然后回测该上线，再向上；另一种是先回调回测三角下线，然后再上破三角上线向上。熊熊的机会在于在接近前高处开砸，使这次上涨变成短期的熊旗，形成中期的三重顶。所以俺认为短期向上的可能很大。
我坐在一旁看戏，等熊熊或牛牛的ST信号。

greenback

From Wall Street Journal

Spain Considers EU Credit Line

BY ILAN BRAT

MADRID—Spain is considering a request for a line of credit from the European Union's new bailout mechanism, a senior Spanish Finance Ministry official said Spain Considers EU Credit LineMonday, giving the first details of the country's plans for seeking help to avoid its debt problems spinning out of control.

The official, in an evening briefing for the international press, said Spain was seeking support from euro-zone partners to go forward with a bailout request. But he said the government was uncertain of unanimous backing because of what he called concerns that investor nervousness over the stability of the euro could then spread to heavily ...

greenback

Okay, bulls are getting it!

Forex are posed to break out!