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要点:
From the perspective of my 2010 theory on a housing bottom arriving in 2013, all these stocks seem to have finally priced in the best case scenario of BOTH a housing bottom this year and healthy growth next year. I still prefer to wait for 2013 guidance to make a judgment call on specific valuations, but I think now is a perfect time to take some profits. These profits should be saved for buying into future dips in homebuilders that should come when data appear to take an ominous turn south.
- Housing prices are finally moving off the bottom in the last 3-6 months (I described this in earlier posts).
- 3-4% annual increase in prices for next couple of years.
- Product levels, starts, and sales likely bottomed a couple of years ago.
- At least 2, maybe 3-4 years away from 1.6-1.7M housing starts per year (levels considered indicative of a strong market).
- The recovery will be "slow and painful."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... ebuilder-stocks-now |
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