疯了，MS要QE4(from Barron's)

Diffusion

不过谁知道，也许Fed更疯狂

Morgan Stanley: QE3 Not Enough to Help Equities, Look For QE4
By Michael Aneiro
TAGS
STOCKS
Seems there might be something to this whole stimulus-addiction thing after all. The ink on the Fed’s QE3 announcement is barely dry, but that’s not stopping Morgan Stanley from labeling the Fed’s latest easing effort a disappointment already and calling for QE4, as it does in an equity research report Monday:
QE3 will likely be insufficient to significantly boost equity markets and we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Fed dramatically augment this program (i.e., QE4) before year-end, particularly if economic and corporate news continue to deteriorate as they have over the past few weeks.

Morgan Stanley acknowledges that the Fed’s ultimate aim is stable pricing and full employment, but it says key near-term feedback from equity markets could prove disappointing. Although QE3 is open-ended, Morgan Stanley says the pace and program of Fed bond purchases is much smaller than previous quantitative easing programs, and at this pace the expected contribution to the S&P 500 from QE3 is expected to be 15-25 basis points per week. This is much smaller than average weekly market volatility, which has averaged 2.3% since 1980. MS says QE3-related gains could cumulate to 3-4% return by year-end, but it sees headwinds – namely negative earnings revisions and reappearance of tail risks – that could “dominate and more than offset” potential gains. MS also cites evidence of diminishing returns to the entire QE enterprise.
During QE3 and any subsequent programs, Morgan Stanley says investors should favor growth stocks and lower-quality equities. Net of systematic effects, MS says healthcare stocks have performed best, while discretionary and telecom stocks have underperformed. MS lists among its top healthcare portfolio holdings AmerisourceBergen Corp. (ABC), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) and Pfizer Inc. (PFE). MS says it’s added Stryker Corp. (SYK) to its portfolio and reduced its exposure to Target Corp. (TGT), increasing its overweight in health care and recommending a further underweight on discretionary names.
Fellow Barron’s blogger Avi Salzman points out that the Morgan Stanley strategist who was lead writer on this report, Adam Parker, also reiterated last month his prediction that the S&P 500 would finish the year at 1,167. At that time the S&P 500 was at 1,404. It’s at 1,454 today. QE3 would have to really disappoint to see stocks fall that much by year-end.

bucks

ysc

silicon_beaver

atrader

Cobra

伟哥总是百吃不逆的。好像汉朝有个皇帝，搞赵飞燕那位？就是吃补药，吃到最后精尽而死的。

Diffusion

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-24 10:01 PM
伟哥总是百吃不逆的。好像汉朝有个皇帝，搞赵飞燕那位？就是吃补药，吃到最后精尽而死的。

ddd

神码都别多想了，大家闷头赚钱吧，赶紧着。

曾几何时，汽油还是$1/Gal，公寓房可以低到$300/Mon。

钱，越来越薄，这是不变的真理，with, or without QE。

Diffusion

ddd 发表于 2012-9-24 10:58 PM
神码都别多想了，大家闷头赚钱吧，赶紧着。

曾几何时，汽油还是$1/Gal，公寓房可以低到$300/Mon。

google

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-24 11:01 PM
伟哥总是百吃不逆的。好像汉朝有个皇帝，搞赵飞燕那位？就是吃补药，吃到最后精尽而死的。

老蛇很愤怒， 据说伟哥里面有蛇胆的成分

Cobra

google 发表于 2012-9-25 05:55 PM
老蛇很愤怒， 据说伟哥里面有蛇胆的成分

lite1067

ddd 发表于 2012-9-24 10:58 PM
神码都别多想了，大家闷头赚钱吧，赶紧着。

曾几何时，汽油还是$1/Gal，公寓房可以低到$300/Mon。

agree.

my first apartment is $285/month..... the cheapest gas  was 0.90/gallon :-)

jerrywu

google

lite1067 发表于 2012-9-25 08:59 PM
agree.

my first apartment is $285/month..... the cheapest gas  was 0.90/gallon :-)

How about your first salary and last salary?

Cobra

google 发表于 2012-9-25 09:24 PM
How about your first salary and last salary?

lite1067

google 发表于 2012-9-25 09:24 PM
How about your first salary and last salary?

i am just one data point, thus has no statistical significance.

Below is the time series of personal income. Does it match the gas or rental jump from 1990s?


The U.S. Census Bureau currently publishes median household income data from 1967 until present day.


Year        No. of Households        Nominal $        Inflation Adjusted $
2011        121,084,000        $49,103        $50,054
2010        119,927,000        $48,340        $50,831
2009        117,538,000        $48,855        $52,195
2008        117,181,000        $49,341        $52,546
2007        116,783,000        $49,258        $54,489
2006        116,011,000        $47,262        $53,768
2005        114,384,000        $45,472        $53,371
2004        113,343,000        $43,497        $52,788
2003        112,000,000        $42,484        $52,973
2002        111,278,000        $41,620        $53,019
2001        109,297,000        $41,415        $53,646
2000        108,209,000        $41,186        $54,841
1999        106,434,000        $39,936        $54,932
1998        103,874,000        $38,097        $53,582
1997        102,528,000        $36,193        $51,704
1996        101,018,000        $34,652        $50,661
1995        99,627,000        $33,207        $49,935
1994        98,990,000        $31,278        $48,418
1993        97,107,000        $30,167        $47,884
1992        96,426,000        $29,448        $48,117
1991        95,669,000        $28,819        $48,516
1990        94,312,000        $28,471        $49,950
1989        93,347,000        $27,388        $50,624
1988        92,830,000        $25,664        $49,737
1987        91,124,000        $24,432        $49,358
1986        89,479,000        $23,301        $48,746
1985        88,458,000        $22,080        $47,079
1984        86,789,000        $20,935        $46,215
1983        85,407,000        $19,453        $44,823
1982        83,918,000        $19,004        $45,139
1981        83,527,000        $17,923        $45,260
1980        82,368,000        $16,523        $46,024
1979        80,776,000        $15,066        $47,527
1978        77,330,000        $13,535        $47,659
1977        76,030,000        $12,113        $45,884
1976        74,142,000        $11,308        $45,595
1975        72,867,000        $10,540        $44,851
1974        71,163,000        $9,902        $46,057
1973        69,859,000        $9,227        $47,563
1972        68,251,000        $8,485        $46,622
1971        66,676,000        $7,913        $44,707
1970        64,778,000        $7,630        $45,146
1969        63,401,000        $7,280        $45,499
1968        62,214,000        $6,668        $43,868
1967        60,813,000        $6,140        $42,056

silicon_beaver

lite1067 发表于 2012-9-25 07:52 PM
i am just one data point, thus has no statistical significance.

Below is the time series of per ...

I plot them so that easy to read.

nasd

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-24 10:01 PM
伟哥总是百吃不逆的。好像汉朝有个皇帝，搞赵飞燕那位？就是吃补药，吃到最后精尽而死的。

哈哈，班长说的是汉成帝与七颗慎恤胶的故事吧？

nasd

笔误了可能，其实MS是想要QE40来着

nasd

lite1067 发表于 2012-9-25 07:59 PM
agree.

my first apartment is $285/month..... the cheapest gas  was 0.90/gallon :-)

the cheapest gas I bought was 0.699 / gallon.......