QE3 可能诱发 Fiscal Cliff (from SeekingAlpha)

Diffusion

要点：

...if Bernanke's actions are perceived by Republicans to secure Obama a new four-year term, I see it as now highly likely that the fiscal cliff will become a full-on reality rather than just a thing we worry about.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/882171-the-fiscal-cliff-qe-slayer

Cobra

真有可能。So far，罗姆尼的反应很平静。我是觉得他可能没戏了。

Diffusion

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-22 06:15 PM
真有可能。So far，罗姆尼的反应很平静。我是觉得他可能没戏了。

今天刚看了个统计，说现在money managers认为Romney会当选。也许等到End of Q window dressing 以后再动手？谁知道。

Cobra

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-22 06:21 PM
今天刚看了个统计，说现在money managers认为Romney会当选。也许等到End of Q window dressing 以后再动手 ...

不会吧，根据Intrade.com，O8的机会有67.5%呢。如果股市从此以后只涨不跌的话，那么罗姆尼一点机会都没有了。

Cobra

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-22 06:21 PM
今天刚看了个统计，说现在money managers认为Romney会当选。也许等到End of Q window dressing 以后再动手 ...

最新数据是71%，罗姆尼没戏了。

Cobra

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-22 06:21 PM
今天刚看了个统计，说现在money managers认为Romney会当选。也许等到End of Q window dressing 以后再动手 ...

Fed all in 风险是很大，下面只要经济数据不好，就麻烦了，因为没有什么可以期待了。

罗姆尼有没有希望，就看10月份的股市了，大涨特涨的话，他肯定没戏了，你说那个笨飞机会不会因此有生命危险啊？把共和党都得罪了。

dsp

Romney tax return rate is a weapon to kill himself. even middle class would not support him

benbendan

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-22 06:15 PM
真有可能。So far，罗姆尼的反应很平静。我是觉得他可能没戏了。

对于摸门教而言，嫘墓泥其实已经成功了。当总统，他真不是那块料。

benbendan

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-22 06:21 PM
今天刚看了个统计，说现在money managers认为Romney会当选。也许等到End of Q window dressing 以后再动手 ...

1932年的时候，还有统计说胡佛赢呢。统计样本好象是1M，其中超过95%认为胡佛赢。这是统计学里的一个经典案例。

Diffusion

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-22 06:29 PM
最新数据是71%，罗姆尼没戏了。

我看得数据是说money managers，就是fund managers + financial advisers。谁当总统不知道，炒股就看谁能影响股市了。

Cobra

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-22 07:40 PM
我看得数据是说money managers，就是fund managers + financial advisers。谁当总统不知道，炒股就看谁能 ...

我明白你说的意思。就得看10月份了。

Diffusion

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-22 08:51 PM
我明白你说的意思。就得看10月份了。

是，拭目以待。

bucks

我估计罗姆尼也没戏了。不过应该有些反击，那能这么就素手就擒？

Diffusion

bucks 发表于 2012-9-22 11:02 PM
我估计罗姆尼也没戏了。不过应该有些反击，那能这么就素手就擒？

还有件事值得说一下。那个数据其实分两项。一项是希望谁当选，一项是谁有可能当选。有趣的是大部分money manager都一直希望R当选，可是一直也都认为是O当选。直到最近，大部分money manager开始认为Ｒ可能会当选。

silicon_beaver

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-22 09:10 PM
还有件事值得说一下。那个数据其实分两项。一项是希望谁当选，一项是谁有可能当选。有趣的是大部分money  ...

--- 一项是希望谁当选，一项是谁有可能当选。

To win, only market crashes Oct is a solution for R.

phph

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-22 07:36 PM
Fed all in 风险是很大，下面只要经济数据不好，就麻烦了，因为没有什么可以期待了。

罗姆尼有没有希望 ...

of course,
a car accident is even too obvious.

There are more than 20 chemicals that can kill a person without any trace left.

small case

Cobra

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-9-22 11:50 PM
--- 一项是希望谁当选，一项是谁有可能当选。

To win, only market crashes Oct is a solution for R.

这个就有点阴谋论了：你的话让我想起来上周提到的VIX $60的海量bet，赌10月份crash。

Yet activity in the options market shows some very bold bets that volatility could sky rocket in the months ahead. Call option buying on the VIX - bets the index will rise - is close to a record high at 5.182 million contracts, according to Schaeffer's data. The record is 5.249 million set in August.

The most actively traded VIX calls on the Chicago Board Options Exchange were October calls with a strike price of 60. Those also had the highest open interest. The VIX would need to rocket more than 300 percent by mid-October, hitting its highest level in about four years, for that trade to break even.

On the face of it a bet like that may seem little better than betting your 401(k) on a single number on the roulette table, but it does reveal more bearishness creeping into the market as stock indexes march to new highs.

Open interest, or outstanding contracts, on the October VIX calls with a strike price of 60 was 37,000 while traded volume was around 40,000. Many of those were bought in blocks of 2000 to 5000 for 5 cents each, suggesting a single buyer, according to Todd Salamone, vice president of research at Schaeffer's.

"Somebody's really playing a disaster by October," said Salamone. "If they're looking for something that big, that is not a portfolio hedge because that would be a lot of downside in the market before that hedge would actually kick in."