很棒的一篇关于growth, inflation, P/E的文章(from SeekingAlpha)

Diffusion

据说我所知，SeekingAlpha文章是有版权问题的。反正大家可以随便看，我就不贴了。给个link，另外总结一下要点。

1. However, while growth in M2, which augments M1 with retail money-market funds and savings deposits, has risen to multi-decade highs as well, it has lagged the growth of M1 significantly, one sign that money supply increases are not being transmitted effectively to the real economy.
2. A 2002 paper by the British central bank (click here for reference), affirmed Friedman's general findings that it takes well over a year to transmit money supply growth to inflation.
3. Contrary to popular belief, equities as an asset class are not a good inflation hedge.
4. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), commodities, timber and farmland to have the best inflation hedging capabilities.
5. Interestingly, gold was found to be a better return diversifier and crisis hedge than it was an inflation hedge.

Cobra

为什么

Contrary to popular belief, equities as an asset class are not a good inflation hedge.

？

Diffusion

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-19 06:15 PM
为什么？

文章里有解释。

简单说就是：历史数据说明，inflation和deflation都会让p/e下降。

Cobra

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-19 06:27 PM
文章里有解释。

简单说就是：历史数据说明，inflation和deflation都会让p/e下降。

ctcld

xiaochong

请教一下，
1，如何买卖tips或有其相关的etf吗？
2，什么样的commodity抗通胀最好呢？石油？

Diffusion

xiaochong 发表于 2012-9-19 08:58 PM
请教一下，
1，如何买卖tips或有其相关的etf吗？
2，什么样的commodity抗通胀最好呢？石油？

1. TIP
2. 原文提到了铜和石油。

当时惘然

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-19 06:27 PM
文章里有解释。

简单说就是：历史数据说明，inflation和deflation都会让p/e下降。

"历史数据说明，inflation和deflation都会让p/e下降"

我的理解是通胀和滞胀都会使股票市场的整体PE下降。
对有些股票绝对不能，一概而论。的确有逆天的股票......

Diffusion

当时惘然 发表于 2012-9-19 10:53 PM
"历史数据说明，inflation和deflation都会让p/e下降"

我的理解是通胀和滞胀都会使股票市场的整体PE下降 ...

确实是有。个股很难说。所以我炒个股的时候总是手软。