AAPL

jamesmith

from all the information i gathered about future products, AAPL is likely to have explosive sales figure in coming months.

things coming:

new iphone

ipad mini

new imac

new mac pro

silicon_beaver

A new high ahead.   

vanbj

rightonmoney

$1000

Wall-E

jamesmith

iPhone 5 Sales Top Five Million in Launch Weekend

Apple today announced opening weekend sales of the iPhone 5 topped five million units, exceeding the four million iPhone 4S units sold during that device's debut weekend last year. The number follows the company's earlier announcement that it had taken over two million pre-orders for the device in the first 24 hours of availability. Apple also announced today that over 100 million devices have been upgraded to iOS 6.

“Demand for iPhone 5 has been incredible and we are working hard to get an iPhone 5 into the hands of every customer who wants one as quickly as possible,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “While we have sold out of our initial supply, stores continue to receive iPhone 5 shipments regularly and customers can continue to order online and receive an estimated delivery date. We appreciate everyone’s patience and are working hard to build enough iPhone 5s for everyone.”

Apple's five million iPhone 5 unit sales seem to fall short of many analysts' expectations. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster last week predicted sales of eight million units based Apple's announced pre-order number, calling six million units the worst-case scenario for the company.

The iPhone 5 launched in nine countries last Friday, and will be debuting in 22 more countries this Friday, September 29.

Cobra

jamesmith 发表于 2012-9-24 08:17 AM
iPhone 5 Sales Top Five Million in Launch Weekend

Apple today announced opening weekend sales of  ...

jamesmith

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-24 08:05 PM

Laoda, AAPL correction?

Cobra

jamesmith 发表于 2012-9-24 08:26 PM
Laoda, AAPL correction?

我是说今天跌了，销售不如预期。这个图是周末画的，上面不是有日期吗？有没有跌完，我不知道。

jamesmith

hmm...crunching some numbers, and wildly guesses...... -_-!
Apple's current twelve month EPS is $42.54, calculated by adding up the last four quarter.
Q3 2011, $7.05
Q4 2011, $13.87
Q1 2012, $12.30
Q2 2012, $9.32
Apple's current price is $690.79, giving it a P/E of 16.24...
Next earning is from July 1st to September 30th. We know this earning will be heavily dependent on iPhone sale.
We know that weekend sale is 5 million. However iPhone5 is available on September 21st, so there's only 9 days of iPhone5 for this quarter.
Apple hasn't said anything about new iPod sales number yet
Apple released Retina Macbook pro on June 11, and updated Macbook Air, most of their sales will contribute to Q3 earnings.
The new Mac OS X  is released on July 25 for $19.99, it is expected to be widely updated because of the low price point.

From last quarters sale by product:
Mac Desktop, $1287 million, definitely will be lowered because lack of update
Mac Portable, $3646 million, definitely will be higher with new Air and Retina Pro
iPod, $1060 million
iPhone, $16245 million, likely to be higher with iPhone 5
iPad, $9171 million, likely to be lowered
Other hardware, $663 million
Software/Service, $891 million, very likely higher due to new Mac OS X sale

Current Wall Street estimate for next quarter report is $8.46, 20% higher than $7.05 of last year. However with new Macs, new Mac OS X, new iPod, and iPhone 5, Apple is very likely to beat $8.64.
If we assume apple sold 6 million iPhone for 9 days with average price of $700 and profit margin of 65%, that gives us 2730 million profit, that's $2.913 EPS already.
$8.64 - $2.913 = $5.727 left for everything else to cover.
If Apple do achieve $8.64, current price gives a P/E of 15.65

I wonder if estimate will be revised up though...Let's wait till Apple Earnings on October 15th.

atrader

700是空的位子。

dividend_growth

atrader 发表于 2012-9-24 10:03 PM
700是空的位子。

那先要看你能不能坚持到1000。

jamesmith

jamesmith 发表于 2012-9-24 09:30 PM
hmm...crunching some numbers, and wildly guesses...... -_-!
Apple's current twelve month EPS is $4 ...

Apple announced ER date is October 25th.

Earning estimate by 46 analysts:
Average: 8.91
Low: 8.00
High: 10.91
Year ago: 7.05

Apple's current twelve month EPS is $42.54, calculated by adding up the last four quarter.
Q3 2011, $7.05
Q4 2011, $13.87
Q1 2012, $12.30
Q2 2012, $9.32
Apple's current price is $626.60, giving it a P/E of 14.73...

Given current price of $626.60
If Earning is 8: YoY growth is 11.875%, P/E will be 14.408
If Earning is 8.91: YoY growth will be 20.875%, P/E will be 14.11
If Earning is 10.91, P/E will be 13.5


Some wild guesses...
There are lots of rumor on iPad mini and its pricing. Using isupply data for component pricing, and looking at comparable devices like iPad 2 and Nexus 7, a $300 would give apple about 40% margin, $250 price will be 28% margin.
Given Apple's brand name, I believe it can demand higher price than Android devices and still capture a good amount of market share in low end tablet market. I am planning to add Apple before its earning.

jamesmith

Here we go :)

Apple Issues Invitations for October 23 Media Event


iPad mini should be announced...
maybe 13 inch Macbook pro retina will be out as well?

if The iPad mini starts at $249, we will see EXPLOSIVE sales figure in this holiday season.
Did you pick up some apple during the recent drop? :)

dividend_growth

iPhone 5国内水货价保持在￥7500，香港是HK$7500。

所有迹象都显示，iPhone 5卖的要比iPhone 4s好很多。

dividend_growth

dividend_growth 发表于 2012-10-17 04:45 AM
iPhone 5国内水货价保持在￥7500，香港是HK$7500。

所有迹象都显示，iPhone 5卖的要比iPhone 4s好很多。 ...

我前天刚问过几个水货店

jamesmith

With today's announcement, all the new products has been announced

13 inch macbook pro
new mac mini
new imac
ipad mini

黄老泻

果果还性高吗？

atrader

从此，APPL就是跌了。

dividend_growth

苹果你就放心的买，如果怕宏观面不行就烧微软对冲。

微软的瘟八，是个自掘坟墓的东东。