Forex/Futures ST for Week 08/26 - 08/31

greenback

Hope you all had fun in August! I was on the road enjoining the "heat wave" on the east coast for the last ten days, well it's hot at least for us in southern California.

Now why I had been slow. To be honest with you, I wasn't very excited about the market. First, I have reached my target of 20% yearly profit, so anything that I'm planning to do would be with less than 1/4 of my buying power. 3/4 of my account has been on sitting on income generating funds from PIMCO as I said in the early August, which will give me another few percents, which would make me very happy by the end of the year. Second, I'm waiting for the big bullish bars to show me the intention for the bulls to break out, but still haven't get it. I guess we need to wait until the European news to settle first, which is at least in mid September. So all in all, it doesn't hurt to hide in income funds, especially when they are hedged by the brightest bond experts in the world from PIMCO.

Next on the future of the DT forum and other investment forums at HT. Cobra and others are proposing to combine the watering posts in HT. I think it's a good idea to combine the resources, given that most bloggers are only part-time traders here. I will definitely keep the ST threads, which are only for sharing directions and ST entries for futures. We can certainly use the threads as records for future references.

So far I'm still on the east coast time, waking up everyday at 5am/8am ET, so I can afford to move my DTing hour to 9 to 10am starting this week. Hopefully catching more waves with you guys. Let's share these DTing setups in other threads.

greenback

On the second post, I would like to point out that the ST analyses are based on 4h charts, so the trading period can last up up a week.

greenback

Now let's start with bonds, as always.

Both ZB and ZN have finished their three leg downs and consolidated for several days. We have seen the first up leg up to 50% retracement, which is also an important previous S/R ... Let's wait for the consolidation or a down leg here to assess their momentum. Usually they should consolidate there for a while.

greenback

By the way, I like the upgraded systems. Much faster! Will come back for more later.

bucks

like PIMCO total return fund ?

胡同儿串子

welcome back!

greenback

bucks 发表于 2012-8-27 08:39 PM
like PIMCO total return fund ?

Yes. I'm using it, I'm also using their multi-sector income fund. It's on a dynamite in the last few years!

greenback

The currencies are supporting the bullish moves in bonds.

EURO is on the way to back test the lower trend line, AUD is breaking down from the head-and-shouler top, and JPY feels heavy, most likely will test the lower trend line soon.

greenback

CRUDE is in a second leg of a retreat after hitting 61.8% of the double bottom break out. Waiting for a retest of the low to buy the dip. Note that CRUDE is weaker due to the down grade of hurricane Issac.
GOLD has reached 100% MM target of the double bottom break out and is retreating, also waiting for a bottom to form to buy the dip.

greenback

Stocks are so far bullish, based on the following points: 1) broke out of the previous channel and has been refused to go within the channel for quite some time; 2) reached ~100% of the cup&handle MM target; 3) Made a multi-year new high. Waiting for a retest of the low to buy the next dip. 4) Finally NQ is turning to be more bullish than ES.

greenback

Based on the these charts, tomorrow morning is likely to be on the bearish side at least initially.

Jennyahwu

, thank your for your updating

greenback

Let's have a midweek update ...

First on bonds ... so far still consolidating at the key S/R level ... don't be too bearish on bonds yet ... this level has been tested back and forth for weeks in the past.

greenback

Some GOLD and CRUDE traders are backing off from the QE3 speculation, it seems.

However, CRUDE may form a double bottom and go back again ... let's watch out.

greenback

Nothing much has changed in stocks, so won't update on ES or NQ here ...

greenback

As for currencies, time to short AUD ... the target is 1.23. If you think Shanghai hasn't bottomed, then this should be a good bet.

greenback

Other currencies haven't changed much.

silicon_beaver

As Laoda said, EOD, bonds at critical level. watching.

greenback

GOLD and CRUDE may have reached a short-term bottom.


I would recommend buying this dip if there were no major news tomorrow. While let's don't let it ruin our fun in trading. There is always another chance.

greenback

TOS is a pain in the neck ... how can they be so stupid in not offering the option to save all the analysis on the server?

It's eventually impossible to reproduce your chart whenever you change your computer!