Forex/Futures Outlook 07/10 - 07/11

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-9 09:54 PM

Well a small range day for stocks, but you should be able to make some profit in trading bonds ...
I was basically on the road the whole day.

Overall I still have a bearish view on the risk assets, same as yesterday. Let's start from forex.

AUD: I annotated the swings and you can see clearly that it finished three up pushups and let's hope there is a one last pushup to either run away completely from risk assets or keep chasing them if it breaks out again.

EURO: stay the same as yesterday ... it won't come up soon ...

JPY: USD/JPY made three pushups as I said yesterday. It also broke down from a bearish rising wedge, but unclear about its next move since it's sitting right at the BOJ intervention level ...

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-9 10:00 PM

I suspect that CL made a 1-2-3 trend trend change. It just made a kiss goodbye and it's on its way down ...

As for GC, it's still on the way to the bottom line ... note that it's not guaranteed to touched the bottom line every time ...

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-9 10:05 PM

ZB broke out and ZN is maintaining its bullish momentum ...

Jennyahwu · 发表于 2012-7-9 10:06 PM

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sum gold still at bottom; cl will go down again. if i am wrong , please correct me

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-9 10:09 PM

Stock indices are making a bear flag ... so more likely it wants to go down ... but you can also say that traders are waiting for news, i.e. those from Europe.

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-9 10:14 PM

本帖最后由 greenback 于 2012-7-10 09:26 PM 编辑

I want to share one last chart today, the daily charts of SPY with USO and bunch of bond funds.

Three observations:
1. USO was the first to crash in May
2. JNK held better but it eventually also tanked in May.
3. The top pattern of JNK is repeating itself right now??? i.e. the pattern at the end of April ...

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-9 10:15 PM

Jennyahwu 发表于 2012-7-9 11:06 PM
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sum gold still at bottom; cl will go down again. if i am wrong , please cor ...

Yes, that's my assessment so far ...

chickencoop · 发表于 2012-7-9 10:19 PM

Jennyahwu · 发表于 2012-7-9 10:29 PM

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THANKS, your point is very important for us.otherwise , I will chase high. today uso up, but oil stock still goes down so i think the CL will go down soon.

kdkboy · 发表于 2012-7-10 05:51 AM

德国突破了，我反正买入了

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Forex/Futures Outlook 07/10 - 07/11

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