What is predictable for 2012?

ppteam

• The usual suspects will goose stocks and commodities near month end to game performance.
• The usual suspects will manipulate stocks, gold, oil and silver near derivative expirations.
• The usual suspects will try to manipulate S&P futures and stocks during the last hour of trading.
• The usual suspects will manipulate S&P futures after Asian trading closes.
• The usual suspects will buy S&P futures on Sunday night to front-run the expected Monday rally.
• Big hedge funds will congregate in mostly the same stocks.
• Big banks will craft earnings, mostly by mark-to-mark fantasy and depleting loss reserves.
• Some auto makers will stuff dealers with cars in order to register higher sales.
• Industry associations will continue to report unrealistically stronger economic metrics.
• The financial media will continue to display pundits that have been horribly wrong for years.
• European sovereign debt crises will fester and worsen.
• The US budget deficit will continue to mushroom.
• US politicians will do little during the coming election year except to attribute blame.
• Globally politicians will kick the can down the road until the market forces real change.
• If a crisis arises, politicians will offer ‘band-aid’ solutions but not the necessary reforms.
• Fed officials will use the media to advance their views, no matter how wrong.
• When stocks rally most fin media outlets will attribute the gain to optimism on Europe.
• When stocks decline most fin media outlets will attribute the drop to pessimism over Europe.
• Individual investors will continue to liquidate stocks and pension assets.
• Bombastic prognosticators will show no humility or shame when they are horribly wrong.
• Late afternoon bullish rumors and stories to boost the NYSE close will appear.
• US government economic statistics will understate inflation and overstate economic strength.
• Most investors and traders will seek affirmation of their core biases and not insight or wisdom.
• Many investors and traders will ‘talk their books’ in the belief that patsies will help them.
• China’s plight will gain more attention and significance.
• Merkel and Sarkozy will meet – repeatedly.
• The usual suspects will bray that central banks aren’t doing enough asset monetization.
• Some German official will appear to squash market hopes of German or ECB asset monetization.
• European nations will not meet fiscal and budget goals.
• The world will not end on December 21, 2012.
• The Chicago Cubs will not win the World Series.
• The Yankees will need pitching.
• NHL refereeing will be exasperating.