VIX does not support 200 DMA being the top of the current advance

csw2002

I know many bears are waiting for the chance to get short at 200 DMA. However, the behaviour of VIX appears to suggest that this time around, 200 DMA is not likely to mark the top of the advance. Typically, during the first bear market rally, VIX would fall precipitously when it reaches the top. During subsequent bear market rallies, VIX would remain elevated.

2008
At the May 2008 top (the first bear market rally after the Nov 2007 top), VIX had fallen to a low of 16 from the high of 32. From both percentage and point terms, VIX indicated a return of complacency.

2002
At the Jan 2002 top (after market crash surrounding 911), VIX had fallen to a low of 20 vs from the high of 42. VIX was still indicating some level of bearishness and indeed after backing off 200 DMA for a few weeks, the actual bear market top was not reached till March 2002 when VIX bottomed out at 18.

As of yesterday's close, VIX remains elevated just below 30, from the top of 49. As a rule of thumb, VIX value of 10 to 19 indicates complacency, 20 to 29 indicates concern, 30 to 39 indicates fear and 40 + indicates panic. Market is not likely to retrace significantly until VIX gets well below 30, and IMHO, below 20, for a good opportunity to get short.

QWE

blue01

right, this is where I'm confused.

mayoutu

回复 csw2002 的帖子

貌似从周线看，VIX在熊市里的有效支撑是50MA，从07年决然突破，到09年3月下旬决然跌破，表示熊市结束。

目前离50MA 22.58还有些距离。

acoust

开小差

ding

spicyfreak

谢谢提醒

vanbj

CoolMax

You got it today! Mark!

csw2002

I know a lot of bears are calling for a second top now that the first top near 200 DMA appears to have failed. Some are itching to get short again. I want to again reiterate that we are not likely going to get a sizeable decline unless VIX falls back into low 20's and preferably in its teens. Think about it: when is the last time a market has cratered when everyone is prepared with puts to short the heck out of the market at the start of a bear trend? VIX is still above 30 despite today's rally.

cat2011

Thank you very much! Any pull back from here will be buying opportunity.

SpringMountain

Whigs

csw2002 发表于 2011-11-3 21:29
I know a lot of bears are calling for a second top now that the first top near 200 DMA appears to ha ...

You can argue this from another perspective:
the two day rally is not real  - you cannot and shouldn't trust it...

CoolMax

CoolMax 发表于 2011-10-27 12:47
You got it today! Mark!

Check Mark！

nomattewhen

benbendan

nomattewhen

CoolMax 发表于 2011-11-3 22:29
Check Mark！

CM laoda, could u share your opinion on this? Will we have a kiss goodbye this time when touching 200 ma?

wnd4

CoolMax

nomattewhen 发表于 2011-11-3 22:40
CM laoda, could u share your opinion on this? Will we have a kiss goodbye this time when touching  ...

好机会是要耐心等待的。

我先看戏。两个重点，200天均线和前高。

有时候要看盘面才能有感觉。像那天VIX收黑棒棒，就提示下跌空间不大了。
所以，不等走出来，事先无法知道。

CoolMax

我不期望这么快又去测试200天均线。这是熊放手的迹象。