SHORT-TERM: THE LOW COULD BE IN BUT MAY SEE A FEW DAYS OF BACK AND FORTH FIRST
今天非常奇怪,一方面我有足够多且可靠的证据,证明这样的later day rally至少此后几天不会很愉快,另一方面,chart pattern以及一些非常可靠的证据证明有可能the low was in了。把这两方面的证据综合在一起,最可能的结论是,the low was in or very close,不过牛牛要做好明后天还有反复的准备。
先看low was in的证据:
3 leg down的图形终于看着完整了,特别是the 3rd leg远远短于the 2nd leg以及在3rd leg之前都有个大的consolidation area的特征全部符合。
Open low, lower low but closer high,今天是个bullish reversal day,从下面的图可以看到(绿色箭头),几乎没有例外,这样的日子意味着至少短期的low was in了。
昨天刚提到,有些信号是不能与之argue的,NYLOW around 1,000就是这样的信号,今天NYLOW新高,也是说the low was in了。
下面谈谈为什么明后两天可能会有反复:
Later day rally总是可疑的,因为机构没有足够的时间accumulation,下面的统计来自Bespoke,明天收红的可能性很大,且幅度不小。
SPX up 1%+ but TICK closed below zero,这个,我在09/26 Market Outlook里讨论过,明天,后天,大后天以及两周后均不是很好玩。今天换一种测试方法,short at today’s close,死扛到SPX第一次收红那天为止,成功率是100%,平均死扛1.3天,收益2.35%。换句话说,明天如果又大涨特涨的话,后天多半全部都会跌回来。顺便说,我把过去所有的例子都标在8.3.8a SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2004 to 8.3.8c SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2010的图里了,有兴趣的可以看看,此后都发生了什么,多数时候光看统计数据是会漏很多重要的信息的。
在昨天10/03 Market Outlook里,我提到由于NYADV too low,因此lower close几乎guaranteed,如果仔细看图的话,图上也说了,今天大涨特涨是意料中的事情,换句话说,close below 10/03的close的预言继续有效,除非这次又是例外(3 out of 24 = 13%的机会)
SPX up 1.65%+,但却不是Major Accumulation Day,虽然明天只有68%的机会收红,可是如果hold到后天的话,那就是高达90%的机会,今天的short可以赚回来。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS
See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH OCTOBER AND 4TH QUARTER
See 09/30 Market Outlook for details. The outlook also includes the October day to day seasonality chart.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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