09/19/2011 Market Outlook (AAPL: Exhaustion Bar?)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: WE MIGHT HAVE ONLY ONE DOWN DAY UNTIL FOMC 

今天没啥好说的，根据7 days rule，今天应该是FOMC前唯一下跌的日子，明天如果再跌的话，那就再次证明这仅仅是个反弹了。

那么明天是否会跌？我不知道。反正大方向我目前是bearish biased，虽然短期，有合适的setup，我还是long（废话）。下面几幅图算是实在找不出来什么好说的，应付一下差事吧。

除了XLY以外，目前看起来几个常见的leading ETFs都是leading down，特别是铜，breakdown了，以前大盘牛的时候，人人都爱说铜领涨，现在咋没人说铜领跌了？

 

AAPL我认为是Exhaustion Bar，所以回调在即。这也意味着QQQ不会好，看看那么高的ChiOsc就知道了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH WEEK

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after September Triple Witching, Dow down 16 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.1%.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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太师椅

这个，俺给补充几句
AAPL涨是要拉指数，NAZ表面很强，内在弱了许多，以前的强股：GOOG，NFLX， FFIV,  NTAP，。。。都不行了
大佬就剩下AAPL，跟AMZN了

最后重申一下，FED开会前，Market的所有动作都是假动作，请大家鼓掌

当时惘然

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acoust

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try_again

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回复 Cobra 的帖子

George25

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Cobra 发表于 2011-9-19 20:05
SHORT-TERM: WE MIGHT HAVE ONLY ONE DOWN DAY UNTIL FOMC 

今天没啥好说的，根据7 days rule，今天 ...

Fan8an

guelder_rose

temujin

But shouldn't an exhaustion bar be a gap up opening and then closing below opening in an uptrend?

Cobra

temujin 发表于 2011-9-19 20:26
But shouldn't an exhaustion bar be a gap up opening and then closing below opening in an uptrend?

No, what you said kind like an exhaustion gap.

风清扬

NewMember

thanks