俺觉得今天到底了。

Read0nly

昨天那一根长钉跌的牛牛心惊肉跳，多数人会以为有可能是探海神针，但昨晚看图后俺觉得是太弱了，今天的回测是必须的，没想到见了新低。今天的一跌，牛牛恐怕要绝望了。不是常说底部要有什么Capitulation Day吗？今天应该就是。

俺前天和昨天平掉了俺的Short仓位，401K分两天All in进入基金，等着搏反弹，还进了些股票。现在看来有点冒险，因为俺心里仍旧是大熊。现在的图形让俺想起2008暴跌前的破位，俺当时居然违反俺的纪律在Dow跌破10000点那天进了一半的基金，结果是大市判断正确，亏损退场，教训深刻。所以再次提醒各位，从现在的位置能涨起来的话只是反弹，想好撤退计划，原因看俺昨晚的图，今年后半年出现新低的可能性远远大于新高。大约在两个月前俺就喊过大市已经进入中期熊市交易模式，以空为主，少做反弹。这个模式还没变，做多一定要小心。俺现在抄底做多的仓位已经有小亏，明天不妙的话俺得坚决退出了。

wofo

plankton

how can you sell your funds so quickly? mine all requires 3 month holding period.

wofo

俺也平空早了，加多早了。

Read0nly

plankton 发表于 2011-8-4 11:47
how can you sell your funds so quickly? mine all requires 3 month holding period.

I have parked my 401K money in the money market fund. There are totally around 20-30 funds available. Most of them have a constraint on the the round trips you can make within certain period of time, 60 or 90 days and prevent you reusing them if you trades reach the limits. I just got my money into 2 funds without that kind of limit and the funds basically follow SPX. So I can get out in case something is wrong without penalty. In case I have to use any funds with constraints, I will use them once within the permitted time ans switch to the other if I have to trade more.

The bottom line is, do not use "diversification" for your money in your retirement plan. Most funds have been diversified already and generally follow SPX. It is overkill to use the diversification again, and your money will be trapped into those funds with time requirements.  

plankton

Read0nly 发表于 2011-8-4 13:28
I have parked my 401K money in the money market fund. There are totally around 20-30 funds availab ...

Very good advice. Thanks.

kristall

Bencat

Read0nly

wofo 发表于 2011-8-4 11:47
俺也平空早了，加多早了。

做空立场不够坚定，丧失了做空的最佳获利期，做多反被套。令人沮丧。

jilier

Read0nly 发表于 2011-8-4 11:42
昨天那一根长钉跌的牛牛心惊肉跳，多数人会以为有可能是探海神针，但昨晚看图后俺觉得是太弱了，今天的回测 ...

新手套头部，老手套反弹。别误会，这不是说您哪，是骂我自己。昨天看着多像一根探海神针，忍不住跳将进去。今天，哈哈。。。

福多多

回复 plankton 的帖子

some index fund you can trade (buy or sell) once a day.  It depends on your 401K choices but it is really not a good idea to enter or exit too frequently.

Read0nly

福多多 发表于 2011-8-4 14:56
回复 plankton 的帖子

some index fund you can trade (buy or sell) once a day.  It depends on your 40 ...

Excluding those bond funds from consideration, the 401k plan of my company has only 2 stock funds without the constraints. Now one of the 2 will be replaced by a new fund with constraint. Those people who made the decision are morons.

Read0nly

jilier 发表于 2011-8-4 14:54
新手套头部，老手套反弹。别误会，这不是说您哪，是骂我自己。昨天看着多像一根探海神针，忍不住跳将进去 ...

I made a mistake early this morning too. I wanted to buy a small chunk of UPRO for the short-lived rebound, but entered a number as 5 times large as what I planned to do and realized it too late. Gave my short profit back to this stupid move.   

soulvirus

Read0nly 发表于 2011-8-4 15:46
I made a mistake early this morning too. I wanted to buy a small chunk of UPRO for the short-lived ...

胜一万次还不够一个不小心一次就赔回去了。玩多了就放松了警惕， 唉。。。

风清扬

可怜的小牛们不知顺势。 忠告一句：珍惜生命，不要炒股

当时惘然

I am totally toasted. if rebounce, then I will cut my loss, even 15% loss !!! Damn.
why no QE3 ?

greenback

let's hope so ...

hunting

yask

coexist