2000 TOP EVOLVED OVER 9-MONTH PERIOD ... While no two tops are the same, we can learn from prior market tops by dissecting the price action and pinpointing the reversal points. With this in mind, I am going to dissect the 2000 and 2007 tops, both of which marked major reversals after extended advances. First, let’s look at the 2000 top. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 in an uptrend in early 2000 as the index recorded 52-week highs in January and March. A large consolidation became apparent when the index failed to exceed its March high in August. Overall, the topping process covered at least nine months and the consolidation range was around 14.50% of the high.
The definitive trend reversal occurred with a weekly close below the February-April lows. Also note that RSI broke below 40 for the first time since October 1998. RSI held the 40-50 zone throughout the bull run. The trend-reversing decline ultimately extended some 28% from the August high, clearly not your garden-variety decline. RSI became oversold and the index bounced back to broken support with a throwback rally that retraced ±50% of the prior decline.
2007 TOP WAS CONFIRMED WITH RSI BREAK DOWN... Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 with a Double Top marking the 2007 reversal. This topping pattern extended for around nine months with a range of 9.5%. I elected to ignore the volatility spike below 1375 in August 2007. After testing the July high in October 2007, the index declined the next three months and closed below support the last week of December.
RSI confirmed the support break with a move below 40 the first week of January. Also notice that RSI formed a bearish failure swing prior to the break. The support-breaking decline extended around 20% from the October high to the March lows. Again, this decline was clearly more than just a correction. As in 2001, there was an oversold bounce (throwback) to broken support in 2008. This bounce retraced 50-61.80% of the prior decline.
RSI FORMS BEARISH FAILURE SWING ON SPX WEEKLY CHART... Turning to the current S&P 500 chart, we can see a consolidation extending throughout 2011. Support is at 1250 and resistance at 1371 (range = 8.8%). With a sharp decline over the last two weeks, the index is down over 7% and breaking the 2011 lows this week. Even though this pattern is shorter than the prior two, in both time and length, we cannot ignore this topping process or the current support break.
Turning to RSI, the indicator formed a lower high in April and failed to exceed 70. According to Wells Wilder, creator of RSI, a Bearish Failure Swing occurs when RSI moves above 70, dips below 70 and then fails to exceed 70 on the next bounce. The Bearish Failure Swing is confirmed with a break below the prior low in RSI. There is also a bearish divergence as the indicator formed a lower high while the index forged a higher high. RSI has since moved back into its support zone (40-50). A break below 40 would provide the final piece of the bearish puzzle.
个人认为，刺破颈线后果很严重，也许还有更猛烈的下跌，应作好保护，小心为上。 |
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-8-3 04:54 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
看上去挺像.
发表于 2011-8-3 05:11 PM
发表于 2011-8-3 05:17 PM
