08/01/2011 Market Outlook (Last Engulfing Bottom)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND, IF ANY, IS SELL

三个理由，我认为如果有反弹的话，应该是sell的机会：

• SPY整了个Last Engulfing Bottom，有65%的机会continue lower。下面的图，highlight in red是最近几次Last Engulfing Bottom (at at least 5-day low) 的情况，可以清楚地看到都是在下降波的中间。

 

• Non-Stop今天应该是sell signal了，大家应该还记得，07/15 Market Outlook里才证明过，这个sell signal有25 out of 27 (93%) 的准确率吧？换句话说，就是今天是the low的可能性只有7%。另外，跟Non-Stop的，明天要close long，如果是aggressive trader的话，可以考虑开short。

 

• 07/29 Market Outlook里提到了，SPX down 5 or more days in a row，意味着今天的low有很大机会被revisit。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN DOWNTREND, SPX TARGET MARCH LOWS AT 1249

SPX可能整了个Double Top，因此target March lows at 1249。

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook. Failed!
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead. Failed!

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead. Also 2 more evidences in 07/25 Market Outlook.
• 07/22 Market Outlook: Bearish on AAPL, therefore QQQ as well.
• 08/01 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 *NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful. IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly UP   XIU & Weekly DOWN   DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN IYR & Weekly DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

cc2265

cc2265

greenback

Jinan90

jy1029

IMeMyself

sooners

回复 Cobra 的帖子

brcm

先顶再看.....................

try_again

支持

Jinan90

好久没接飞刀了，这次接了AKS， 三天跌400多， 飞刀划手不好玩。今天穆迪给它大降级。

donalan

Diver

nanosensor

Thanks

c3456

temujin

thanks

大牛Steve

美眉妹

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google

不是说本周收绿吗, 木有了？

tonghu