07/25/2011 Market Outlook (Two Top Signs)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: THERE’RE SOME CHANCES THE HIGH WAS IN

有一定的几率，可能the high was in了，当然需要chart pattern confirm，所以我只说有这种可能性，还不是非常的肯定。两个理由：

• 0.3.0 CPCE Trend Line Watch，trend line破了，且hold了两天，因此有可能the high was in了。老胡同都知道，这是个相当可靠的看顶信号。

 

• 1.1.1 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily)，好像最近空心红棒棒都是顶哈。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY BUT BULLISH WHOLE WEEK

See 07/22 Market Outlook for more details.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead.
• 07/22 Market Outlook: Bearish on AAPL, therefore QQQ as well.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP   SSEC & Weekly UP *Big red bar usually means a start of downtrend, so be careful here.  EEM & Weekly UP XIU & Weekly UP DAX & Weekly UP   TLT & Weekly DOWN   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN IYR & Weekly UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful. XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

marquis

balto

jcs

balto

今天vix跳起来的十字星动机不明啊，老蛇谈谈看法？

JohnHsu

cc2265

IMeMyself

thanks

Billyboy

dodofish

curiosity2009

Cobra

balto 发表于 2011-7-25 20:13
今天vix跳起来的十字星动机不明啊，老蛇谈谈看法？

我想你的意思是说VIX在说没有到顶，对吧？我对VIX的解读是，VIX已经说是顶了（我另有武器，哪能出尽所有底牌？），考虑到最近的几个推断，加上今天的signs，真有可能top了。当然，VIX往往也是两腿，所以不排除明后两天掉下来一下，形成双底。

顺便说，我的setup是应该buy at close，今天。这个应该有90%的机会可以全身而退。

福多多

lilitulip

thanks a lot

balto

Cobra 发表于 2011-7-25 19:18
我想你的意思是说VIX在说没有到顶，对吧？我对VIX的解读是，VIX已经说是顶了（我另有武器，哪能出尽所有 ...

嘿，都成了我肚子里的蛔虫了，哈哈。。。盘中上了些hedge，这个点位不上hedge那就是死牛了。。。可是VIX跳的太快做空有点怕怕。。。

summer123

当时惘然

Thank you

MtlJaysFan

Thanks

vanmark

第二个证据我深有同感。这几次的顶都是先gap down一下拉起来，第二天再向下来一下狠得。考虑到头上debt ceiling的飞刀，我感觉市场可能最多坚持到明天下午。引而不发太吓人了。

marquis

vanmark 发表于 2011-7-25 20:36
第二个证据我深有同感。这几次的顶都是先gap down一下拉起来，第二天再向下来一下狠得。考虑到头上debt cei ...

Nod, nod
牛熊都睡不好... 太TMD吓人了..