老蛇的put/call 图

buhutong

今天看了barron 本期的一片文章 " Too Much Put Buying? ", 其中有一段说上周4 CPC 出了个buy signal

There is another put-call ratio that rarely gives signals, but it generated a buy signal this past Thursday. It is the total put-call ratio. This includes all listed equity and index options. Throwing index options into the mix generally confuses things, except in the most extreme cases.

IT IS QUITE RARE FOR THIS ratio to rise above 1.00 on any given day (that is, the total of all puts traded rarely exceeds the total of all call traded on listed U.S. exchanges). When it does, that is often a short-term market buy signal.

It is even rarer for the 21-day moving average of the total put-call ratio to rise above 0.90. This had occurred only 12 times in the past 10 years. It occurred again on Thursday. When that 21-day moving average peaks, it is usually a powerful buy signal for the general stock market.

In eight of the 12 cases, the Standard & Poor's 500 rose more than 100 points after the signal. The time required for the rise ranged from seven days (in the crazy days of October 2008) to eight months (in the slow-moving market of 2006). The other four times, another buy signal was established within a month or two thereafter—for example, there was a buy signal on June 16, 2010, but the market traded lower, creating another buy signal on July 23, 2010. The latter signal produced the desired 100-point rally in S&P 500.

看了看老蛇的图, 好像看不出来上面所说的事情.?

Masktear

"..The time required for the rise ranged from seven days (in the crazy days of October 2008) to eight months (in the slow-moving market of 2006). ..."
I can predict that too.

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