我已经不好说八飞特什么了。

colderdown

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett says the nation's employment picture will improve significantly once residential housing construction rebounds.

Buffett spoke to Bloomberg Television Friday morning before the Labor Department released a weaker-than-expected monthly jobs report, but his comments were more about the long-term picture.

The head of the conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc. says he thinks people will be surprised how quickly employment improves once the excess houses are bought and normal levels of construction resume. He says the nation is still working off the excess homes created during the housing bubble.

Buffett expects unemployment to fall to about 6 percent within a few years, and the 2.5 million jobs lost in the recession will be replaced. The June unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent.

老八，哪个是因，哪个是果啊？挺住了06年的房子买主，这两年基本都买了。现在美国房主28.8%在水下，失业率高，薪资下降，银行放贷严格（20%首付），盖了房子你卖给谁啊！cao你ma的大忽悠，快入土的人了，说两句实话好不好？

machcat

还有中国人~全现金的那种~

ByStander

老八是OB的拥护者，现在当然不会说经济的坏话

lite1067

colderdown 发表于 2011-7-8 12:57
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett says the nation's employment picture will im ...

八肥没说错啊。

"improve significantly once residential housing construction rebounds"

这句话翻成中文就是：“如果房屋基建反弹的话，就业情况会很大的改善”。如果的条件不成立的话，它的结论随便是什么，这个如果命题都没错啊。

colderdown

回复 lite1067 的帖子

因果搞反了。你想，如果在高库存情况下加产，结果是价格下降（假设需求不变）；房价下跌，更多人下水，减弱消费信心。要是说盖盖房子能盖出个经济实体大牛市，那大家都去当泥瓦匠得了。搞搞基建还靠谱，盖房子，最不靠谱。

lite1067

colderdown 发表于 2011-7-8 13:30
回复 lite1067 的帖子

因果搞反了。你想，如果在高库存情况下加产，结果是价格下降（假设需求不变）；房价 ...

他说的是rebound.... rebound是指市场情况下的正常增长，不是政府干预的stimulate. 等经济好了，又有建房需要了，失业率也就低了。

你说的对，不是因果关系。是共生关系。

colderdown

回复 lite1067 的帖子

经济好了，失业率自然要低，跟盖不盖房子关系不大。丫不是废话吗？

CoolMax

呵呵，俺们那个区，最近有国内的有钱人，全Cash买房。

柳言

CoolMax 发表于 2011-7-8 14:36
呵呵，俺们那个区，最近有国内的有钱人，全Cash买房。

你的那个区是好地方，所以富人齐聚。
我这边有个朋友上网买了两间在Phoenix，还没亲自看过 ,很便宜，还很新。叫人管理，不错的投资。

colderdown

回复 CoolMax 的帖子

去年全美有大约6000独立屋被中国人买走，占全美成交量的0.12%。

goldbug

Open the door to eco immigrants. Buy 2 houses with all cash, green card in 1 year.  Buy 4 houses, gc in 1 week.

dayuangone8

weigoodone01

marketstudent

回复 colderdown 的帖子

The government is determined to continue to devalue US dollar and at the same time to keep the rate low to bring back manufacture job. Job market is improving and (unemployed) young graduates are moving out of their parents house, that's the reason rental price has shoot up in most of the major cities.   Eventually they will be new home buyers, but they are not likely rush to buy multi-million dollar house,  the house they could afford will probably be less than $500K.

Billyboy

abcStock

当时惘然

ddd

colderdown 发表于 2011-7-8 13:30
回复 lite1067 的帖子

因果搞反了。你想，如果在高库存情况下加产，结果是价格下降（假设需求不变）；房价 ...

这个不稀罕，我们很多事情的因果关系都弄反了，譬如“天天锻炼身体好”，我目前的体会是恰恰相反，“身体好的人才会天天锻炼”。那不锻炼的人他都有不锻炼的身体原因。

再譬如，你跟任何一个金管谈，他都会吓唬你，“高风险，高回报”。其实这根本就是这些不顶用的金管的挡箭牌。事实是，“只要高回报，就低风险了”。不是吗？不是吗？

大家周末愉快！

dividend_growth

根据俺对老巴多年的观察，他从不像其他“大师们”那样信口开河。

这次说的话，也是有条件的，就是营建业要回升，失业率才会真正下去。
至于营建业什么时候回升，那要看泡沫前多盖的库存什么时候消化掉。

soulvirus

巴肥现在是模范公民