06/13/2011 Market Outlook (No Title)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

不清楚明天是否继续反弹，反正到底有两种情况，要么panic，要么没有panic就反弹，但很快会有二次探底的动作。因此如果明天就开始大反弹的话，一般来说还是sell的机会，因为还没有panic。

 

其他没啥好说的。我在06/10 Market Outlook里提到了很多看oversold的终极武器，今天没有多大变化，so they’re still almost there。另外，今天又多了个重要的指标，NYADV:NYDEC MA(10)，也是almost there，所以这里就开始反弹，我不会觉得奇怪，但是如果继续跌的话，可能牛牛忍一忍就好了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday of Triple Witching Week, Down down 8 of last 13.
2. June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
• 06/08 Market Outlook: The very first rebound most likely will fail.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 83% chances a lower low the next week.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN Hammer on retest of the previous low, so may be bottomed? EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though. *1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN Breakout down trend line then kiss the trend line good-bye? GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

Jinan90

RespectRisk

Jinan90

我是读完才抢的沙发。也抢了。

xiaochong

班长现在越来越准了

CoolMax

NZX

oldfox

fead

sfbayarea

George25

temujin

thanks

jcw

oda

happyface

try_again

Thanks

tonghu

要跌就跌透吧

layschips

再不反弹熊熊也要饿死鸟

BRCBRC

6th-Sense

Cobra 发表于 2011-6-13 20:21
SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

不清楚明天是否继续反弹，反正到底有两种情况，要么panic，要么没有p ...

会有暴力杀熊之日。。。