05/27/2011 Market Outlook (Could be green next week, but not without a fight)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: 63% CHANCES A GREEN NEXT WEEK BUT THERE’LL BE A DIP FIRST TO EVEN REVISIT THE 05/25 LOWS

下周有63%的机会收绿，不过多半会先跌破周五的close，甚至revisit 05/25 lows。

下面的图是我最终确定的下周走势。这个图，在05/27 Trading Signals里已经提过了，这里只是做了点小修正，因为统计的结果表明冲高后，回落的可能性比较大。

 

下面的统计是说下周有63%的机会收绿，但是高达93%的机会会有dip。另外，见seasonality部份，也是说下周有64%的机会收绿。顺便说，小心the 3rd time is the charm，因为这是自2009年3月的大牛市以来，第三个4 consecutive red week，前两次都是发财的机会，问题是，这第三次是否会不一样？当然，这个所谓的3rd time只是个speculation，不是warning，关于中期，后面会有讨论，目前我认为出新高的可能性比较大，不过，可能性非常大，这个3rd time，涨幅会远远小于前两次。

 

关于下周会有dip的理由，除了上面的统计以外，还有三个理由：

• As mentioned in 05/24 Market Outlook, 70% chances SPX will close below 05/24 close.
• As mentioned in 05/26 Market Outlook, 69% chances SPX will close below 05/26 close.
• 第三个理由非常重要，0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume又冲高，相信如果最近都看了我的报告的话，那么现在应该已经没有人怀疑这个指标的可靠性了吧？其实最让我不放心的是8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV，下面的图是过去仅有的几次Normalized value如现在这么高的情况，可以看到此后dip的可能性是很大的。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAY SEE NEW HIGH, TARGETING SPX 1352 to 1381 AREA, BIG CORRECTION MAY FOLLOW AFTER THAT

中期，我认为出新高的可能性较大，但是也很大可能性，下图的wave count正确，SPX 1381 (Refer to 04/01 Market Recap for how I get the SPX 1381 target)是wave 5的最后target了。

 

先说看新高的理由：

• 3 push up看着还少了最后一个push。

 

• 最近的II看correction的比例忽然爆增，见下图红线指出的部份，基本上这意味着会有新高，然后才是真正的correction（注意，这个同时也是看correction的理由，只是先新高，然后correction）。

 

下面的图是我认为最终会有较大的correction的理由：OEX Open Interest Ratio看着太象2007年了。OEX option traders以准确著称，弄这么大的open interest ratio，应该不是空穴来风。

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Day after Memorial Day, Dow up 8 of last 11.
2. First trading day in June, Dow up 10 of last 12, 2002 –2.2%, 2008 –1.1%.
3. Memorial Day week Dow down 7 of last 14, up 12 straight 1984-1995.

Also see 05/20 Market Outlook, Memorial Day week, positive 64% of the time.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
• 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low, so a bottom is close.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?
• *0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: New recovery high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.
• 05/27 Market Outlook: II Correction % too high, so should be a new high ahead then followed by a real correction.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 05/20 Market Outlook: A little bearish next week, either close in red or drops below SPX 1318.
• 05/27 Market Outlook: May revisit 05/25 lows the next week.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly UP   QQQ & Weekly *DOWN   IWM & Weekly UP SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly *UP   TLT & Weekly UP *3.0.1 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT 60 min): Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming. UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly *UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly *UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

CoolMax

Forevergreen

wyemlyy

Forevergreen

sooners

xiaochong

PacificLegend

lilitulip

thank you so much

slcgh

trader88

好早啊，谢谢！

Bencat

market will top on June?

wnd4

thanks

MFTHT

skipjack

SmartyJones

xz214

chickencoop

cartier

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