05/20/2011 Market Outlook (Just a little little bearish biased)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE BEARISH BIASED

暂时不看好下周，不过正如05/20 Trading Signals里指出的一样，不能排除Head and Shoulders Bottom的可能性，所以周一高开高走的话，我保留随时改主意的权力哈。

 

下面是为什么暂时不看好下周的理由：

• 05/06 Market Outlook里提到了IWM Weekly Bearish Engulfing意味着后面三周都不好，下周是第三周，有90%以上的机会SPX close低于其05/06 close at 1340。现在是1333。
• Red OE week (就是本周）后的下一周，不是收红，就是会有lower low。就是说SPX会low过1318。

 

• Week before Memorial day也是略为偏熊，下面的统计来自Schaeffer.

 

• 3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 60 min)，米纸的调整可能已经结束了，下周如果往上突破的话，会对股市造成很大的压力。

 

我知道，有同学会说SPX已经连跌3周了，第4周应该不会再跌了吧？恩，下面是back test，buy at Friday’s close sell the next Friday’s close since 1973，好像没什么edge，当然死扛派是有71%的机会的，不过可能要关了电脑。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
• 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(5) too low, so a bottom is close.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
• 05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly UP   QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP   SSEC & Weekly DOWN *Too weak to even establish a Bear Flag, breakdown is more likely. EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN *Volume surge after constantly trending down, may pullback. USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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先顶再看。别忘了去表个态

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准备出去吃饭前看到, 哈哈, 坚决插入第一页~~

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First page!

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