05/03/2011 Market Outlook (Down Day Tomorrow?)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:00 PM

SHORT-TERM: 10 OUT OF 12 CHANCES A DOWN DAY TOMORROW

三点说明：

明天可能收红。
反弹会有的，牛牛暂时没有啥好担心的。
操作上，明天跌的厉害的话，我做熊，明天涨的话，就还是老老实实做牛。

为什么说明天可能收红？见下图，Bearish Reversal Day第二天又收红(follow-through)的话，最近有10 out of 12 (83%)的机会第三天还是收红。所以做好准备明天还跌吧。

基本上我还是认为必须有RSI negative divergence才可能会有真正的下跌，从04/18到05/02的上涨，那么强，很难想象牛牛不挣扎一下就直接掉下去的。下面的统计是从另一个角度说明应该会有反弹。QQQ连跌3天，今天收盘买，死扛到第一次收绿的那天，自2003年起，你有79%的机会不仅不会掉毛，至少还能咬一嘴鸡毛。

CPCE trend line今天破了，所以可能意味着顶部，当然明天这个trend line必须hold才算。如果我前面提到的10 out of 12明天收红的话，那么明天多半trend line会hold。另外，明天如果收红的话，就是SPY连跌三天了，a strong uptrend should never ever have 3 consecutive down days，那么我们现在在top附近的可能就相当高了。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

See 04/27 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

See 04/29 Market Outlook for more details. For May seasonality day by day also see 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	CANDLESTICK	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP	Hammer
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN		Officially in downtrend now, be careful.
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP	Hanging Man	*ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE & Weekly	UP	Shooting Star	3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund: Volume surge, bottomed? FXE is now too high above MA(200), see weekly chart.
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	UP		*Breakdown, bearish, but too low below BB bottom.
USO & Weekly	UP	Shooting Star
XLE & Weekly	UP	Dark Cloud Cover
XLF & Weekly	UP	Outside bar	Bear Flag?
IYR & Weekly	UP	Spinning Top
XLB & Weekly	UP	Bearish Engulfing

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

bbsid · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:01 PM

Thanks a lot!

leftright · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:02 PM

ppteam · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:02 PM

Safa?

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:05 PM

jcs · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:07 PM

impresario100 · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:08 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

我是谁 · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:11 PM

I thought so， Cobra likes 毛

pigking · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:13 PM

我又在大本后面，高兴

rosyrosy · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:13 PM

lilitulip · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:18 PM

thank you

面瓜 · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:20 PM

老大给review一下DAX？

Billyboy · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:20 PM

michaelzhang · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:21 PM

acoust · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:22 PM

First page!

MtlJaysFan · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:37 PM

Thanks Cobra

ahdou · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:38 PM

happyface · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:39 PM

thanks

umqasr · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:40 PM

ut1984 · 发表于 2011-5-3 08:44 PM

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[技术分析] 05/03/2011 Market Outlook (Down Day Tomorrow?)

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