Recently, 胡同 neighbours are talking about how the rally and small volume. Here are my 2 cents.
Everybogy agrees that the volume tells us that there are no big players. Why it is so bullish recently? Before I answer that. Here is my question. What do small traders do? They buy and hold for a gain. Sure there are few of them will short but majority of them are long. So while the big players are out watching or already long in, small traders buy and expecting gains. The market bias is bull. However, if you poll all the people, including big players, the result would be bearish. It is not shown in the market because the major player are not trading.
The bull will stay for a while, at least till the OE of June. Cobra's plots said it. Average 22% in 60 days after couple 9:1 days. Historically this signal is accurate. So far, the market tells us that it is accurate this time. Fed meeting should be treated as a very short term impact. Statistically, Fed meeting doesn't prove to be a significant market moving force.
I can't see what will happen after OE of June even though I wear glasses.
This info is for reference only not a trading recommendation!
[ 本帖最后由 palm 于 2008-4-30 11:47 编辑 ] |