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| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
*02/11 L |
1.9*ATR(10) |
*Enter long on any pullback to around SPY 02/11 mid price ($132.53) but still above 02/04 lows. I cannot give intraday signal, so have to buy the next pullback for this trade. |
| Short-term |
N/A |
N/A |
Trend is UP. I hold partial long position over the weekend. | |
| My Thoughts |
*I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher. | |
SHORT-TERM: PRICE ACTION ARGUES FOR MORE UPSIDE, BEAR’S BEST BET IS TIME RESISTANCE
The bottom line，现在看起来连from high to low 2.5%+的pullback都是奢望，机会大大的，the market may continue up from here，特别是下周一或者二有follow-through的话。熊熊现在的best bet就只有time resistance了，同样，如果要反转，周一或者周二也是关键。考虑到trading是art不是science，因此let’s give both bull and bear a few more days, say the whole week the next week to see who stands at last.
在02/10 Market Recap里我提到了，如果这里还是地球的话，所有的事物都要符合惯性定律，INDU up 8 consecutive days应该是strong up momentum的表现，因此通常情况下，熊熊最好不要指望sharp reversal down。周五的After Bell Quick Summary里，我提到，周五的up，看起来不像是follow though周四的down，因此可能排除了5 out of 9 immediately having 2.5%+ pullback的情况，INDU may continue up from here and so will the other indices，特别是如果周一或者周二又大涨特涨的话(to follow-through the Friday’s up)。
现在看看熊熊的best bet，非常有趣，很多time resistance都集中在本周五或者下周初。
- 首先是02/04 Market Recap里提到的max to 61 trading days without 2.5%+ pullback threshold，到周五已经是第60th trading day了。
- 02/04 Market Recap里也提到了，自March 2009的major rally，max to 54 trading days，到周五已经是第52th trading day了。此外下图还显示了有2个major cycle due from 02/11 to 02/13，而统计上讲，在2000年以来，每个月的11号和14号是最可能的pivot date之一。
The last but not the least, here’s the latest poll for how many bears still standing from my forum, for fun only because you may argue that the choices are not fair for bears. LOL. Again, the poll is in Chinese but I happens to know some English.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THE NEXT WEEK
See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT MONDAY AND FRIDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- First trading day of February Expiration week Dow down 4 of last 6.
- Day before Presidents Day weekend, S&P Down 16 of last 19.
- February Expiration day, Dow down 7 of last 11.
The seasonality surrounding Presidents Day below is from Sentimentrader.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-2-12 08:14 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2011-2-12 08:27 PM
发表于 2011-2-12 08:58 PM
