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| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
02/01 L |
Breakeven |
On 02/03, stopped out of long position entered on 02/01 flat. |
| Short-term |
N/A |
N/A |
Trend is UP. I hold no position over the weekend. | |
| My Thoughts |
*I see no reason to short but am not convinced yet this is the primary 3 of 3 to much much higher. | |
SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A RED WEEK AHEAD
两个理由，下周可能收红。
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，SPX too far above MA(200)，好像最近都有一到两周的red。
OEX Put Call Ratio is way too high，看起来短期也是有一点点点熊熊友好的。
第三个理由，不算solid，有点经验的成分，突然一个wide range bar after a series of small bars，我的第一个反应就是不能排除是exhaustion bar的可能。特别是如果你注意到seasonality session below的话，NASDAQ down 8 of last 10 next week。顺便说，二月的expiration week (the next next week) and the week after (the next next next week)，都比较bearish。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS
先说结论：
- 两周内如果SPX没有2.5%+的pullback，那么机会大大的，SPX在今后89个trading day内都不会有2.5%+ pullback，换句话说，很大可能，我们目前经历的不是ABC rebound而是Primary 3 of 3 to Galaxy far far away。
- 反过来讲，如果两周内就有2.5%+的pullback话，只能说明熊熊还有希望，目前是ABC rebound的可能性还存在，但是还是不能排除Primary 3 of 3的可能性。
- 就算真的有2.5%+的pullback，77%机会，我们这一轮的high (say, the Friday’s high at 1311) will be revisited。今天的报告将不会论证这个77%，有兴趣的可以参看11/12 Market Recap。
看清楚了没？就是说怎么着，都对牛牛不坏，the pullback if indeed, could be another buy opportunity。
下面的图有助于了解上述结论的background。左边是bullish count，very very bullish，右边是bearish count，目前可能是very close to the end of wave 5 and therefore the wave C。对我来说，我不care which count is correct，反正既使是bullish count，也只有在bearish count的所有target都没有起作用的情况下，才有可能正确，所以我在此前的intermediate-term分析中都是取用的bearish count。顺便说，从图中看，下面重要的点位，分别是1360, 1381 and 1428.
OK，现在谈谈SPX 2.5%+ pullback within 2 weeks or never的理由。
下面的图是主要理由，在11/08 Market Recap中我已经用过了，顺便说。从历史看，up without 2.5%+ pullback在40 to 61 trading day之间是一道坎，绝大多数的straight up ends within this range。如果超过61 trading days的话，那么就有可能会在长达150 trading day的时间里都不会有2.5%+的pullback。我们现在是day 55，也就说在6个trading day内，没有2.5%+ pullback的话，那么SPX就很可能还要straight up 89 more days，这个，显然就不可能是ABC rebound，而是primary 3 of 3了。Agree？
下面的图是另一个理由，自March 2009年以来的几个major push up，持续时间为44 to 54 trading days，而我们现在是第46个trading day，也就说有在8 trading day内结束这一轮push up的可能。此外，count 8 trading days from now，正好也在2月份最bearish的时间段内。Coincidences? Well, we’ll see.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week before February Expiration Week, NASDAQ down 8 of last 10, 2010 up 2.0%.
The following screenshot about Average Monthly % Change for the DJIA is from Bespoke.
The following screenshot about the February seasonality day by to is from Sentimentrader.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-2-5 08:50 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2011-2-5 08:52 PM
发表于 2011-2-5 10:29 PM
