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| BULLISH |
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. |
| BEARISH |
1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 25 unfilled gaps, the max is 25.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
*0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
*0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down).
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
01/07 Market Recap: SPX weekly price volume negative divergence, 71% chances SPX < 1271 in 2 weeks.
01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign.
01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.
*4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Too high above MA(200).
*4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
*6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): Potential short setup. | |
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
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*Buy whenever SPY drops below the 01/14 mid price at $128.72 but still above $126.80. The stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10). Not sure if it’s too late though. |
| Short-term |
N/A |
N/A |
Trend is UP. I hold partial long position over the weekend. | |
| My Thoughts |
A correction is just a matter of time, but until price confirms, I prefer long to short, with caution though. | |
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS THE NEXT WEEK
下周可能会比较熊，并且，on the intermediate-term，熊熊要反攻的话，下周可能是the best chance了，否则至少牛牛可以安全到01/26 FOMC。
先说说短期可能pullback的信号。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
Intermediate-term一直blah blah的price and time target总算都到了，time target看起来给早了点儿，不过let’s give it another week，看看这个forecast是否成功吧。
下面的图，汇集了所有weekly extreme的信号，因此从indicator的角度看，关于intermediate-term的price and time target的forecast正确的机会还是不错的。当然，again and again，重要的是price pattern confirm，在没有看到至少1%+ down day and close almost low of day的daily bar之前，做熊是非常危险的。此外，不要忘了，既使有这样的daily bar，一般重要的顶部还会有reversal of reversal of reversal，也就是说big daily red bar的第二天很可能是big daily green bar，牛牛其实是有充分的机会安全撤离的，因此，so far，局势对熊熊不利，不要忘了这一点。
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY, HORRIBLE WHOLE WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- First trading day of January Expiration Week, Dow up 13 of last 18.
- January Expiration Day, Down down 10 of last 12.
- January Expiration Week horrible since 1999, Dow down big 8 of last 11.
The chart below is about the seasonality around Martin Luther Kind Jr. Day, looks like post holiday wasn’t so great.
Also see 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-1-15 06:36 PM
提升卡
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变色卡
发表于 2011-1-15 06:39 PM
发表于 2011-1-15 06:44 PM
