What is driving Chinese inflation

csw2002

While in China, I had a discussion with relative who runs a factory. He postulates that the incessant inflation isn't caused by unsterilised RMB printing by PBoC. Raw material price increases do have an impact on the inflation but not it's not a major driver. He believes that the No 1 driver for inflation is government sponsored drive by employees for higher salary and wages. Employees, especially in private enterprises, are encouraged and backed by Government Officials (in particular Wen Jiabao) to stake for higher income. Due to staff shortages, employers are increasingly unable to restrain wage claim by employees. In his factory, he has to regularly increase salary, now on a weekly basis, to retain staff. He has no choice but to increase output prices regularly to offset increasing labour costs. As cost increases are now such a regular occurrence, he's unwilling and unable to allow his customers to book large forward orders at a fixed price. All of his suppliers are also unable to fix a quote for more than a couple of days. He's finding it increasingly difficult to conduct businesses. If the current trend continues, he's looking at closing down the business. Moving the business to interior of China is not an option because he doesn't have the necessary connections to get things moving (or he's too tired to do it all over again). He also says that the issue is facing just about all of his business contacts as well. He's looking at migrating to either Australia or Canada.

revolver

Basically, it's a feedback loop system. However, the root cause is still because of over-inflated money supply.

chickencoop

The US had the same experience in early 90s and late 90s when labor cost drove inflation to highs.


The new minimum wage law implemented the past summer in China didn't help either. You can see the spike in labor cost and further decline in productivity coincided this year after the new policy [i didn't find an updated picture but it gets worse].

windy

dzyx

I think China is experiencing a cost-push inflation. The Chinese government is using a way which works for controlling the demand-pull inflation.

All I can say is the Chinese government is playing a very dangerous game. Chinese government had a chance at around 2006 to boost the RMB:USD to around 5:1. Instead they tried to inflate the assets. Now the wage and inflation keep going up and the demand for RMB to appreciate will never go away. At present, the RMB is pretty much at its fair value.

China is now in a dilemma. 也就是我３年前说的，中国将会吃夹棍。工资上来了，导致更多的通涨，而人民币升值的压力一点也减不了。

trade28

thx

colderdown

W. Arthur Lewis explained it.

netbanker

yes, just like USA in 1980's. that is why Credit card is invented :)

Whigs

While in China, I had a discussion with relative who runs a factory. He postulates that the incessan ...
csw2002 发表于 2010-11-12 08:40

涨得最凶的农产品价格，恐怕和“加工资”关系不大吧。

marketstudent

With the aging population Labor cost in China will increase, not much option is left.

quickcow

还得找美帝。。。。

ROOKIE2

房价的上升带动了一切.

ypm968

造成中国通货膨胀主要原因就是市面上钱太多 （excess liquidity). 欧美经济不景气，美元升值，和新的劳工法导致中小型企业经济环境恶化。像你亲戚开工厂遇到的窘境在中国南方很普遍。很多靠出口的劳动密集型的产业，比如做服装的，做鞋的，做玩具的，做小商品的等等近几年生意很不好做，盈利锐减，很多工厂根本不赚钱，全靠出口退税。浙江和广东的东莞倒闭很多工厂，规模比较大的工厂去年有很多把生产线转移到越南，今年是流行转移到内陆，更多人是把工厂关了不做了。很多人把前些年赚到的钱都投入到房市， 山西煤矿被国有，很多煤老板也把钱投入到房市， 加上去年中国QE，大型国企也都不务正业，去炒楼炒地， 去年北京上海平均房价翻一番。今年4月中国政府推出新国四条和新国十条开始打压房市，一部分炒房团，主要以温州炒房团为主开始撤出房市，开始炒绿豆，炒大蒜，炒蔬菜，人家一投就几亿几十亿控制整个产业链，从农民到批发商到零售统统搞定。说白了就是垄断，控制了定价权，他说多少钱就多少钱，结果疯狂的蔬菜就诞生了。今年十月初中国政府看到四月份的房市调控效果不明显，马上推出了个新国十条加强版再加上传言北京上海房产税明年开始实施， 大量资金再次流出房市。 十一黄金周结束后大量资金涌入股市，上证指数开始狂飙，之后5个星期暴涨20%，虽然昨天大跌5%， 但是离顶还远着那，这才炒了一个月，只是个开始。中国市面上的钱太多，没地方去，又出不去，放银行里real interest rate是负的，只好炒来炒去， 炒什么涨什么，最后就把通货膨胀带动起来了。

ahdou

谁告诉你的，农产品价格与涨工资没关系的？如果农民的生产成本如农药化肥生产工具都在涨的话，农产品能不涨吗？如果农民工进城比种地种菜的收入高出很多，农产品的供应都可能成为问题，难怪要从国外进口呢。中国的通货是政府一手造成的：美国至少是公开印票子，可有谁知道中国政府到底偷偷印了多少呢？政府带头一次又一次的涨工资，贪污，圈地发财，搜刮民脂民膏，百元大钞满地飞，私企也只能被迫涨价，况且还有房价股价的泡沫和外资的涌入，你能让所有的价格都涨而农产品不涨的道理吗？

ypm968

谁告诉你的，农产品价格与涨工资没关系的？如果农民的生产成本如农药化肥生产工具都在涨的话，农产品能不涨 ...
ahdou 发表于 2010-11-12 21:11

    人工在涨，化肥价格，种子价格都在涨，农产品正常的通货膨胀是应该的。 但是今年绿豆的价格是去年的10倍， 今年大蒜的价格是去年的多少倍啊，我今年回去的时候北京上海土豆卖到3.40一斤， 去年才多少钱一斤？。 难道今年人工，化肥和种子的价格都比去年翻了几倍？

李隆基

作者：keen99lihui  发表日期：2010-7-2 2:13:00
   
    上海青 4元/市斤
香麦菜 5元/市斤
　　豆角 4.5元/市斤
　　草鱼 8元/市斤
　　猪肉 9.5元/市斤
　　排骨 18元/市斤
　　金龙鱼油 65/桶(5升)
　　普通中国大米 2.8元/市斤
　　
　　
　　唯一亮点：空心菜 2.5元/把 够吃两餐。
　　
　　天朝万碎，CPI稳定，P民情绪稳定，生活压力不大。
　　
　　思考涨价的原因，可能是有人在炒蔬菜，炒大米，炒猪肉，也有可能是下了一个星期雨的原因。更有可能是大量农民拥挤到城市，导致农村土地荒废，无菜可供，只好进口蔬菜和猪肉。凡此种种，大家都来发表自己那地方的物价吧！毕竟吃是我等P民的头等大事，以前会饿死人是没东西吃，现在如果还会饿死人的话，那一定是买不起的人。

李隆基

作者：keen99lihui  发表日期：2010-10-27 16:57:00
   
    身在外贸公司，深切体会到汇率和订单的关系。
　　一个外贸员，从打样报价到客户下订单，周期最少是一个月，如果金融市场稳定还好，如果不稳定，公司就很被动了。
　　就拿我最近的一单为例子。8月份接到客户订单，我们的成本价格是13.00/PCS，两个月后做了一个40尺柜货出来，总共是16万个。卖给客户是13.5/PCS，这是8月份时候签定的PI，和客户的结算方式是见提单复印件付款，好了，问题来了，因为汇率变动了。
　　按旧的汇率1=6.82算：13.5*160000=2160000.00元RMB 换算成美金
　　是316715.5425元。客户付给了我们这笔美金，可是银行要求我们必须结汇，才能动用这笔美金。于是，杯具就发生了，我们的会计只能按银行今天的牌价拿到RMB：2096656.89元，差额63343.10的钱就这样被蒸发了。我们总共的利润才80000块而已，无形中被蒸发了一大半，我看到BOSS的头发最近都白了好多，估计他老人家比我痛苦啊！TG打仗是把好手，我承认，可玩经济，他们真的还不够人家华尔街一个扫大街的，明知道玩不过人家，斗也斗不过人家，还非要去试试，结果自己被人整得灰头满面不说，还把我们P民的一点血汗钱给整没了。我觉得，TG还是趁早歇菜吧！别再折腾了，留点家用给P民吧！打这种金融战，中国不怕神一样的对手，只怕猪一样的ZF。

dzyx

从G20的公布看，TG是打算加快人民币升值幅度和加息来控制通胀。

一正一反，尽量稳定经济。

ahdou

回复 15# ypm968


    Ypm968同学，同意你的观点，多谢。我的贴事实上是在回答Whigs的‘涨得最凶的农产品价格，恐怕和“加工资”关系不大吧。’的说法，哈

trade28

head ache