11/10/2010 大盘回顾 （Normalized CPC is a little too low）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but not confirmed. I opened both long and short today, closed long but hold trapped short for tomorrow.. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/04,11/14,11/26 11/06 : 11/07 Next pivot date: 11/04 – 11/08, 11/24 – 11/26

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. T2111, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(200) is a little bit high. T2112, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40) is a little bit high. 11/04 Market Recap: Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) is too high. 11/04 Market Recap: 41% of Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks. 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: SPX new high while NYMO is negative, topped? 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day, so topped? *8.1.4 Normalized CPC: A little low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 11/08 Low Stopped out on 11/09 with profit. NYMO Sell   *Setup not confirmed and no longer valid. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: CPC <= 0.80, 13 OUT OF 17 TIMES A RED DAY THE NEXT DAY

 

今天没啥好说的，所以After Bell Quick Summary就省了吧。今天的反弹，比我预期的弱，但是也算符合了bullish the next day after a Bearish Engulfing的说法。这个Bearish Engulfing，是不是真的bearish，以及candlestick reversal bar是否还有分析的意义，就看明天开始的3天吧。

 

 

One trick for tomorrow, when CPC <= 0.80, 13 out of 17 times (76%) a red day the next day。

 

 

8.1.4 Normalized CPC，就是对CPC求MACD(10, 200, 1)，以去掉不同时期CPC的base value。这个目前稍稍有点低了，需要关注。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX MAY SHOOT HIGH THEN FALL BACK TO WHERE IT STARTS WHICH USUALLY IS THE 2ND BUY OPPORTUNITY

 

See 11/05 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH

 

See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	10/15 L
NDX Weekly	UP	%B too high with negative divergence. NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. NDX:SPX too high. Too far away from MA(200) (PPO(1,40,1) too high).
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA	07/15 L
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM		ChiOsc is too high.
EEM Weekly	UP	EEM:SPX too high.
XIU.TO	08/31 L	TOADV MA(10) too high.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		ChiOsc is too low.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	10/29 L
GDX Weekly	UP	BPGDM too high, pullback?
USO		*WTIC breakout!
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L	Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/02 L
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE overbought. XLB:SPX a little too high.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

blueukc

thanks

c3456

Whigs

bench

globe

Ave

驻马望千门

狼可能真的快来了

slcgh

coppereye

班长效率高啊！

Bencat

Summerrose

nokia

quickcow

早！

ranchgirl

good

netfire

superxy

老蛇，看了FED的POMO，有没有可能SP会一直涨到年底，1300也是有可能的吧？
最差也是猪吧？
打算明天buydip，hold到年底。

jinr

今天真早，谢谢班长！

Cobra

老蛇，看了FED的POMO，有没有可能SP会一直涨到年底，1300也是有可能的吧？
最差也是猪吧？
打算明天buydi ...
superxy 发表于 2010-11-10 18:36

弄不好就这么不死不活的横着。

dsp

Thanks.