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发表于 2010-2-12 12:18 PM
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Why Investors Care
The budget data have several direct and indirect meanings for the financial markets. The most direct relationship lies between the size of the budget deficit and the supply of Treasury securities. The higher the deficit, the more Treasury notes and bonds the government must sell to finance its operation. From there it's simple supply and demand -- if demand is constant but the supply of bonds goes up, the price goes down. The same is true if the deficit falls or is eliminated altogether -- the government needs to sell fewer Treasury bonds, so the supply drops and the price of T-bonds rises. In the past few years, the budget deficit has increased dramatically, and this has put more Treasury securities into the market place.
The Federal government borrows money through the issuance of Treasury securities; so higher deficits mean a larger supply of securities and (again, assuming constant demand) lower prices. With notes and bonds, lower prices are equated with higher yields, so in this example, the government borrows money at higher interest rates. That impact ripples across all other interest rate-bearing securities and creates a higher interest-rate environment for stocks, which is bearish.
In addition to following the trend in the budget deficit or surplus, investors can gain valuable insight to the state of the economy by looking at the government's tax receipts. Higher tax receipts lead to an improved deficit situation when economic conditions are strong; conversely, lower tax receipts reflect a sluggish economic environment.
为什么投资者服务
预算数据有几个金融市场的直接和间接的意义。最直接的关系介乎预算的赤字规模和国债的供应。赤字越高，就越国债和债券，政府必须出售其运作资金。从那里，就简单的供给和需求-如果需求是不变的，但是，债券的供应上升，价格出现故障。也是同样的道理，如果赤字的下降或完全消除-政府需要出售减少对美国国债，因此，供应下降和价格的T国债上涨。在过去的几年里，预算赤字大幅度增加，这已投入市场的更多国债。
联邦政府借的国债，通过发行证券的钱，所以更高的赤字意味着更大的供应和证券（假设不变的需求）更低的价格。随着票据及债券，更低的价格等同于高收益，在这个例子中，因此，政府在更高的借款利率。这是在所有其他利率的影响余波息证券，并创建一个高息股票，这是看跌的利率环境。
除了按照预算盈余和赤字的趋势，投资者可以得到宝贵的见解，对经济状况的是政府的税收收入看。高等税收收入导致财政赤字状况改善经济条件强，相反，较低的税收收入反映了疲软的经济环境。 |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-2-12 12:14 PM
