Using 缠论 reading current market

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-12 04:09 PM

11/12/2012 close, spx still 中枢震荡 inside 5F中枢 {1373.03 [1388.14, 1391.39] 1403.03}. It finished the 4th 1F down 线段 from last Fri, then finished 2 new 1F 线段 down up and down, the 3rd one -- 1F up 线段 is not done till close. SPX is trapped in 1F中枢 {1373.03 [1378.65, 1387.77] 1391.39} as well.

NOTE, from now, I will use 4 numbers to label a 中枢 -- {min [zone low, zone high] max}.

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-13 12:48 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-12 04:09 PM
11/12/2012 close, spx still 中枢震荡 inside 5F中枢 {1373.03 [1388.14, 1391.39] 1403.03}. It finished ...

from CHAN's perspective, could the gap down this morning be counted as a 1st buy as it has made a new low? and then the following pullback could be treated as a 2nd buy?

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-13 02:14 PM

bucks 发表于 2012-11-13 11:48 AM
from CHAN's perspective, could the gap down this morning be counted as a 1st buy as it has made a ...

IMHO, 1st buy is always coming from 趋势背驰. This morning gap down then bounce up is 1F盘整背驰. It's still inside 5F中枢 {1373.03 [1388.14, 1391.39] 1403.03}, now we could update 5F中枢 min from 1373.03 to 1371.39.

For bull to win, it has to form a 3rd buy on 1F中枢 {1373.03 [1378.65, 1387.77] 1391.39}, which it failed on 1382.01 @ 13:00EST.

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-13 02:51 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-13 02:14 PM
IMHO, 1st buy is always coming from 趋势背驰. This morning gap down then bounce up is 1F盘整背驰. ...

yes, you are right. from the perspective of the 1F zone you defined, the gap down this morning is 1F盘整背驰. Sometimes I just treat it as 1st buy too.

It seems, when attempting to catch a trend reversal, a 3rd buy or sell is a much safer play. However, in many cases the new trend is incredibly strong that it strikes out of an established ZONE violently and leaves a 3rd buy quite far from bottom or top. In your experience, how to deal with this kind of scenario?

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-13 03:58 PM

11/13/2012 close, spx still 中枢震荡 inside 5F中枢 {1373.03 [1388.14, 1391.39] 1403.03}. Bear made a new spx low 1371.39 for this down run, but it could not escape the 5F中枢 constraint.

Today's morning gap down void yesterday 3rd 1F up 线段, morning low spx 1371.39 ends the 2nd 1F down 线段 from yesterday 1384.87. Bull did show some strength in the bounce up which break into 5F中枢 1388.14, however, it could not make a 3rd buy on 1F中枢 {1373.03 [1378.65, 1387.77] 1391.39} by 13:04EST to escape this 1F中枢.

SPX continue 中枢震荡 inside 5F中枢 {1371.39 [1388.14, 1391.39] 1403.03}, the closest 1F中枢 to watch is shift to {1371.39 [1382.01, 1386.57] 1388.81} as spx is trying to escape from it as of close.

NOTE: If SPX keep swing around 1378--1388 for another 2-3 days, this 5F中枢 would grow 1 level up to 30F中枢.

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-13 05:14 PM

bucks 发表于 2012-11-13 01:51 PM
yes, you are right. from the perspective of the 1F zone you defined, the gap down this morning is ...

缠师 said how to deal with this kin dof set up in lesson 54 -- 教你炒股票54：一个具体走势的分析 (2007-05-24 01:37:31)

"必须注意，在这种大幅快速波动的情况下，一个小级别的第三类买卖点就足以值得介入。例如对一个周线中枢的突破，如果真要等周线级别的第三类买卖点，那就要一个日线级别的离开以及一个日线级别的反抽，这样要等到何年何月？因此，一个30分钟甚至5分钟的第三类买卖点都足以介入了。但这里有一个基本的前提，这种小级别的大幅突破必须和一般的中枢波动分开，这种情况一般伴随最猛烈快速的走势，成交量以及力度等都要相应配合。这种操作，如果理论把握不好，有一定风险，就是和一般的中枢震荡搞混了，因此理论不熟练的，还是先按最简单的来，例如对周线中枢的突破，就老老实实等周线的第三类买点。注意，卖点的情况，即使理论不熟练的，宁愿按小的来，因为宁愿卖早，决不卖晚。不过，对于大级别中枢来说，如果还要等到第三类卖点才卖，那反应已经极端迟钝了，那第一、二卖点去哪了？市场里可不能随地睡觉。"

Right now, SPX is working on 5F中枢, which requires a 1F走势 break up and dip back not hit 1391.39, but if you see a 1F线段 is strong enough or in extreme condition -- 1 笔 or 1 big gap up to break 1403, then you need to pay special attention here for a possible 5F 3rd point will show up.

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-13 11:49 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-13 02:14 PM
IMHO, 1st buy is always coming from 趋势背驰. This morning gap down then bounce up is 1F盘整背驰. ...

I just shifted to watch SPX in order to follow you. However, IMHO the 1min down move from 1433.38 to today's low 1371.39 already has 2 中枢 on my chart, so today's opening low is a 1min 趋势背驰 to me. The 2 中枢 are (1396.74,1402.14) and (1378.65,1384.87). What do you think? I am sorry that the TOS chart is too big to quote the whole picture at here.

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-14 12:16 AM

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-13 10:49 PM
I just shifted to watch SPX in order to follow you. However, IMHO the 1min down move from 1433.38 ...

1min 趋势背驰 needs 2 中枢 that not overlap -- including the min / max of each 中枢. Could you identify them? I saw that spx formed a 5F中枢 from Nov 7 1388.14 to Nov 9 1391.39 via 9 1F线段. Please refer to my post#151.

gucci · 发表于 2012-11-14 01:05 AM

本帖最后由 gucci 于 2012-11-14 01:08 AM 编辑

In my chart, 1F already had a 趋势背驰 too. I expect the market bounces back to the previous 中枢[1376.61-1379.10].

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-14 07:38 AM

gucci 发表于 2012-11-14 12:05 AM
In my chart, 1F already had a 趋势背驰 too. I expect the market bounces back to the previous 中枢[13 ...

Your 1min chart shows that it's 笔中枢 to me, unless you are using ticks chart to get the basic building block -- 线段. Be careful, 笔中枢 is not safe to act based on 缠师.

Here is my 1Min chan chart, numbers are 1F线段.

gucci · 发表于 2012-11-14 08:07 AM

Oops, Austinjoe. You are right.
I overlooked the LEVEL here.

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-14 09:27 AM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-14 12:16 AM
1min 趋势背驰 needs 2 中枢 that not overlap -- including the min / max of each 中枢. Could you ide ...

You are right, the max of second中枢 has a little bit overlap with the low of the first中枢，so strictly speaking it is 5min 扩展中枢

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-14 10:10 AM

现在我的SPY图里5分钟的中枢已经走到第8段了，很有可能升级~

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-14 04:21 PM

11/14/2012 close, spx finally has a 3rd sell on 5F中枢 {1373.03 [1388.14, 1391.39] 1403.03} on 1371.25 @14:00EST today. Bear made a new spx low 1352.50 for this down run -- it breaks the Aug 2012 low 1354.65.

Open gap up ends yesterday unfinished 1F down 线段, then add another 5 new 1F 线段, the 6th one heading south is not finished till close.

milan1126 · 发表于 2012-11-14 05:31 PM

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-14 04:21 PM
11/14/2012 close, spx finally has a 3rd sell on 5F中枢 {1373.03 [1388.14, 1391.39] 1403.03} on 1371. ...

楼主您的走势结合实在是运用得非常完美，要是能每天都把1分和5分的chart都更新一下发上来就更完美了呵呵

ethanlinear · 发表于 2012-11-14 06:21 PM

本帖最后由 ethanlinear 于 2012-11-14 07:00 PM 编辑

也很希望看到更加详细的图，便于青蛙学习，不过如果太多麻烦，还是多给楼主点自由好些呵呵。

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-14 06:58 PM

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-14 05:31 PM
楼主您的走势结合实在是运用得非常完美，要是能每天都把1分和5分的chart都更新一下发上来就更完美了呵呵

Can,t agree more. Hope it's not too much burden for austinjoe

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-14 08:38 PM

本帖最后由 bucks 于 2012-11-14 08:49 PM 编辑

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-14 12:16 AM
1min 趋势背驰 needs 2 中枢 that not overlap -- including the min / max of each 中枢. Could you ide ...

Is this required "趋势背驰 needs 2 中枢 that not overlap -- including the min / max of each 中枢" ?

for your 5F zone, [2 - 6] makes 5F 段， [6 - 11] makes 2nd 5F 段，but [11 - 12] is only a 5F 笔（or 1F 段）and can't make a 5F 段.

你的定义是根据 9 段 1F 走势来的。So, my question is: can we define a 中枢 by 两个线段一个笔？或者，中枢可以被两个次级别走势和一个次次级别走势定义吗？

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-15 07:29 AM

bucks 发表于 2012-11-14 05:58 PM
Can,t agree more. Hope it's not too much burden for austinjoe

Sorry I can not promise to post chart on daily base -- simply because I'm holding a full time job and family life. I'll try my best.

austinjoe · 发表于 2012-11-15 07:32 AM

bucks 发表于 2012-11-14 07:38 PM
Is this required "趋势背驰 needs 2 中枢 that not overlap -- including the min / max of each 中枢 ...

5F zone ==> (3456) + (6789) + (9101112), each is 1F.

I'll answer your other questions later.

		自动登录	找回密码
密码			注册