2012-06-W4

snowrider

No trade for medium- and long-term position today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Long Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- Cash 75%

Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:  None

We were hoping that the market could drop below 06/25's low, but it surged up in return the last hour before close.  No matter how volatile today's wash was, it was still in between short term resistance (yesterday's high) and support (06/25's low).  Therefore, We won't start any accumulation before a clear direction is seen.

Wave count (based on the grey line scenario):
06/19/2012's high = [B]
06/25/2012's low = [C].I
1. 06/27/2012's high = [C].II ... (we are in wave [C].III.1 now)
2. 06/27/2012's high = [C].II.a ... Today's low = [C].II.b ... (we are in wave [C].II.c now)
(Note that this scenario will become invalid if the market shows a 5-wave up movement.)

Irene2011

回复 snowrider 的帖子

Thanks.  

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-28 16:59
No trade for medium- and long-term position today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today' ...

雪大，如果我们现在是在[C].II.C，由于在昨天你的图示里面可以看到[C].II.A是一个5浪结构，我们可不可以认为[C].II.C也应该是一个5浪结构？ 如果这样，今天尾盘的拉升还只是第一小浪[C].II.C.1，那么明天要完成5浪的话应该还没有涨完?

君遥

cat2011

Thank you for your update, holding cash

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-28 18:28
雪大，如果我们现在是在[C].II.C，由于在昨天你的图示里面可以看到[C].II.A是一个5浪结构，我们可不可以认 ...

雪大，如果我们现在是在[C].II.C，由于在昨天你的图示里面可以看到[C].II.A是一个5浪结构，我们可不可以认为[C].II.C也应该是一个5浪结构？ 如果这样，今天尾盘的拉升还只是第一小浪[C].II.C.1，那么明天要完成5浪的话应该还没有涨完?

时时是好时 - 好問題!  問得好!  在回答你這問題之前偶要提一下的就是 波浪理論的創始 Ralph Nelson Elliott 在他的 "The Wave Principle" (古典學派) 中只有簡單陳述些事實及現象  在 Robert Prechter 的 "The Elliott Wave Principle" (現代學派) 中引入了許多新的東西  但是 Robert Prechter 他對於波浪理解早已走入死胡同而無法突破  以至於許多實戰中的現象他並無發現或是無法解釋

OK ... 這是 雪派加註 的一部分:  Wave Truncation 不是只有在第五浪會發生而已 ... 在第 C 浪也有可能發生

所以 ... [C].II.c 也有可能是 got truncated 也有可能如你所說的 現在是 [C].II.c._1

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-28 21:11
时时是好时 - 好問題!  問得好!  在回答你這問題之前偶要提一下的就是 波浪理論的創始 Ralph Nelson  ...

谢谢雪大解惑，原来这后面还有这么多理论支撑。 Amazing!

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-28 21:03
谢谢雪大解惑，原来这后面还有这么多理论支撑。 Amazing!

剛才這樣的一隻大漲  使偶開始看多了  等明天收週線及收月線時確認

Irene2011

市场变幻莫测。明天看雪大如何操作了。

胡同儿串子

MM很损，甩掉俺之后绝尘而去。。。

bucks

at critical or ambiguous time, MMs always choose a route which is less likely in public opinion. However, to jump in and be a minority requires strong nerves and guts

snowrider

今天開盤開的太高了 偶只好等它回檔時才買進 (嘆一口氣)  ...

snowrider

期指的波型: 從昨天低點到今天目前的高點形成一個漂亮的上行5波 所以偶們等它回調

chickencoop

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-29 09:22
今天開盤開的太高了 偶只好等它回檔時才買進 (嘆一口氣)  ...

this past week is very hard to trade.... hope it will get better..... thanks for all your updates I feel that I'm not alone in this boat.

snowrider

chickencoop 发表于 2012-6-29 09:24
this past week is very hard to trade.... hope it will get better..... thanks for all your updates  ...

Haha ... we are in the same boat!  The market washed up and down back and forth the past few weeks.  The oscillation finally came to a narrow range yesterday.  I was thinking to take action today or next week once the market went out that narrow range.  It turned out that MM did not give even me a chance.  I'll wait till the market closes.  Most likely I won't do anything today.

snowrider

原來的盤整區: between short term resistance (06/27's high) and support (06/25's low)
突破之後的測算目標是等幅  今天高點已經滿足此目標  所以偶們不追高  等收盤

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-29 09:49
期指的波型: 從昨天低點到今天目前的高點形成一個漂亮的上行5波 所以偶們等它回調

雪大，是不是有些波形是盘前/后在期指上完成的？这就是说我们数波的时候还要参考期指喽？
记得有人说看期指没有多大用，而一些人又说只是盘前那段走势比较有意义。不知你是怎么看的？

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-29 09:44
雪大，是不是有些波形是盘前/后在期指上完成的？这就是说我们数波的时候还要参考期指喽？
记得有人说看 ...

問的好!  請看此一討論:

http://perfectew.blogspot.com/20 ... -futures-index.html

簡言之:

What I do is to have a 2-way consideration: I count both SPX and futures index.

TNA

SnowRider,
Please check the picture I just posted (the $rut one)
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=176359
Yesterday TNA was not down much when DIA  was down a lot before 3:00pm
Thanks

snowrider

TNA 发表于 2012-6-29 09:57
SnowRider,
Please check the picture I just posted (the $rut one)
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php ...

Thanks for sharing.  Yes, it looks like a big bull!