2012-06-W1

snowrider

英文版:

SN - which scenario is more likely after today's action. By the way I heard this was the heaviest of short covering in 2 1/2 years.

samirs - I would bet on the purple line scenario as my preferred count.  Today's market closed as a gravestone candlestick pin, which implies a possible ending and reversal of the wave started this Monday.  Before the high of this pin is breached, I take the purple as the preferred count.  If the high is broken, the grey line is underway.  Thanks.

胡同儿串子

wow, look at GC, any thought?

snowrider

胡同儿串子 发表于 2012-6-7 21:37
wow, look at GC, any thought?

I had short position the beginning of this week, but it got stopped out on Wednesday.  I don't have any GC position now.  I still think that GC is going to break last month's low (and also the half-year- old low).

胡同儿串子

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-7 19:11
I had short position the beginning of this week, but it got stopped out on Wednesday.  I don't hav ...

thanks

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-7 16:50
We sold all stock holdings (FAZ, SQQQ, and EDZ) in the small troop to accept the loss.  We also bot  ...

if both scenarios will head down, why sold the bear ETF?  and earlier this week you kept saying you regret you didn't have more bear ETF. Thank you

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-6-7 22:50
if both scenarios will head down, why sold the bear ETF?  and earlier this week you kept saying yo ...

lilitulip - Good question!  Very good question indeed!  Let me tell you what my pain is, and maybe all my friends here can help me to figure out a way to resolve this problem!  I sold my bear (3X) ETFs because they fell below the low of last pull back (05/29/2012).  (After that, their rhythm of going up with higher highs and higher lows has been interrupted.)  What is my pain then?  My pain is that 3X ETFs generate too many false signals, which reduces my profit and increase my loss..  For example, EDZ broke the low of 05/22/2012 on 05/29/2012 where EEM did not exceed the high of 05/22/2012 on the same day.  The false breaking below previous wave low on 05/29/2012 stopped my EDZ out (with profit).  I was not happy about being stopped out that day because I would not have to chase it back on 06/04/2012 if EDZ did not get falsely stopped out.  And you know the rest story ... if I did not chase EDZ on 06/04/2012, I did not even get trapped at high price!

OK ... so you know my pain is that I want to find some ETFs that have good liquidity, high leverage, but less false signals.  Anyone has a suggestion?

胡同儿串子

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-7 20:20
lilitulip - Good question!  Very good question indeed!  Let me tell you what my pain is, and may ...

TNA and TZA seem to have good records, I rarely trade them, but saw some HTers like them.

时时是好时

胡同儿串子 发表于 2012-6-8 01:48
TNA and TZA seem to have good records, I rarely trade them, but saw some HTers like them.

I agree. TNA and TZA seem following the main market better than EEM.

snowrider

I trade TNA and TZA too.  I am thinking about getting rid of EDZ and EDC from my list.

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

why you didn't use EEM instead to create trading signal? due to 3X ETF's leverage, the traditional TA signlas may be exaggerated or stretched to deviate from the right path of the underlying ETF.

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-6-8 08:50
回复 snowrider 的帖子

why you didn't use EEM instead to create trading signal? due to 3X ETF's leve ...

bucks - Thanks so much!  I never thought about that approach.  That is a really good suggestion!!!  We could watch a 3X ETF's underlying stock for trading signals.  

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

You are so welcome. Glad I am helpful

today looks a chance to reload longs I sold yesterday. It's for very short-term positions.

I am afraid the mkt may have entered a consolidation phase. It will bump up and down for a few days. So, need to stay alert and  act quick

hometh

if use spy, then trade spxu, upro
if use eem, then trade edc, edz
i like put edc, since these eem guys decay much faster than spy guys, 10% is very common for edc/edz.

snowrider

hometh 发表于 2012-6-8 09:47
if use spy, then trade spxu, upro
if use eem, then trade edc, edz
i like put edc, since these eem  ...

Thanks for the suggestion!  SPXU and UPRO are also on my list.

rnhoo

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-8 00:20
lilitulip - Good question!  Very good question indeed!  Let me tell you what my pain is, and may ...

Master snowrider, can you tell me why you do not short directly instead of buying 3X ETF?

I think you want a higher leverage, say, 4:1 from broker, 3x ETF, so you want a 12x leverage, right?

NYQ

Surport snowrider: The market is En Route to the previous low. But as a tadpole, I have now plan to add my previous short positions, just too deep under the water and I cann't afford a double blow, in case I was plain wrong.


That said, I am not mean the market will start to go down right away, more up may happen before down  and the market will doji for a while.

snowrider

rnhoo 发表于 2012-6-8 10:23
Master snowrider, can you tell me why you do not short directly instead of buying 3X ETF?

I th ...

rnhoo - Good question!  I really want to simplify everything.  For my big troop (long term position) and small troop (medium term position), I buy stock only.  For my special force operation troop, I trade futures for all possible directions (long and short) and all possible timeframes (DT to medium term trading).

snowrider

Just bot SPXU with the fund in my small troop.

时时是好时

雪老大，昨天没有跟上你加仓TLT。今天TLT的高开低走挺吓人的，在这里跟进问题不大吧？

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-8 14:15
雪老大，昨天没有跟上你加仓TLT。今天TLT的高开低走挺吓人的，在这里跟进问题不大吧？

今天的這種走法的確挺嚇人的   ... 所以你看所謂塞翁失馬 ... 沒跟偶做可能也是對的!  
只要它最後半小時能夠拉到 126 左右收盤  那偶就不擔心了  否則偶就會擔心