Perfect Wave - 2012-1/2

大牛Steve

snowrider 发表于 2012-4-8 23:20
請看偶今年一月一日的貼
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=155148&page=1#pid1707427
...

雪骑老大，我始终无法接受2000年至2003年是A浪，特别是道指DJIA，见附图。
对于标普500也是一样，2000年至2003年是一轮反复有价格重叠区域的调整浪。
进一步说，200年尾至2007年下半年是一轮不折不扣的牛市，不可能是B浪。
方便的话，可以解释一下吗？

说明：这个数浪是我独立做的，没有参考任何资料。

snowrider

回复 大牛Steve 的帖子

大牛 - 這個評分最多只有100分的選項 否則偶會評1000分!  你問到了一個困擾所有 EW technicians 多年的關鍵問題!  就是 2003-2007 到底是推動浪還是修正浪 偶正在忙其它的事 晚一點再來寫

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2012-4-8 20:55
雪骑老大，我始终无法接受2000年至2003年是A浪，特别是道指DJIA，见附图。
对于标普500也是一样，2000年 ...

大牛 - 看了你對道指的波浪標示 一句話恢常棒!  關於2000至2003的那一段 偶們來看這盤棋 ...
1. 關於2000至2003的那一段 偶們都同意那是個修正浪 ... 所以它可以是 偶的[[[A]]] 或是你的[[IV]]
2. 關鍵重點是2003至2007的那一段 偶同意你說的 "是一轮不折不扣的牛市" 但對於它的 formation 偶是真的不確定 偶對於它的認定換來換去換了N次 有時偶認為它是推動浪 有時偶認為它是修正浪 有時偶認為它是走勢末端的不健康推動浪 好偶們將這個問題留到等一下再來說
3. 關於2007至2009的那一段 如果它是你標的浪[[A]] 從2009以來的就是浪[[B]] 而接下來就是一個超級大跌的浪[[C]]
4. 關於2007至2009的那一段 如果它是偶標的浪[[[C]]] 從2009以來的就有2種可能: 浪[[[D]]] (而接下來就是一個超級大跌的浪[[[E]]]) 或是 一個大多頭的推動浪(破新高或是末端皆可)
5. 以上的棋盤如何下?  #3不錯 #4亦可(有多空2種可能性)  好 如果偶們決定下#3這一步棋 那麼2003至2007的那一段就是推動浪[[[III]]] 如果偶們願意接受#4的這一步棋 那麼2003至2007的那一段就是修正浪[[[B]]]  兩步棋的差別在哪裡?  差別在#4的這一步棋亦有考慮到一個(現在看來不太像的)可能性 - 破新高絕塵而去

最後 ... 若是真要去細部分解2003至2007的那一段 偶看過許多不同的標示法 但可能偶的修正浪的標法是屬於少數派    again 偶還是不確定那一段到底是什麼浪 但是一個原則就是儘量在數波時留下多些彈性空間

大牛Steve

首先我要表明，标注记号完全是学习您的，这是我一再坚持您是我老师的理由之一。
为了简化特意降了一级别，即拿掉了一个[]，我的[[C]]与您的[[[C]]]其实是一个级别的波段。

關於3，有可能出现的超级大跌[[C]]，其目标也就是我在主板发帖所谈的950附近。
除此以外，关于目标还有个灵感来自于我对上证指数的数浪。
注意到其中[[B]].[C]只有[A].V的一半，这种畸形的C浪的可能性有待验证，可毕竟发生了。
我知道普遍上C浪不短于A，见附图：



同样地，如果没有经融海啸这样的冲击，标普很难想象能恐怖性地跌到667这样的位置。
目前[[A]]=1477-667=890，以后大盘跌幅[[C]]>[[A]]/2即>450是可以接受的，就像上证的[[B]].[C]。
所以，未来的目标的另一个推算点位是也就是低于1422-450=972，距离主板发帖所谈950不太远。

關於4，参考主板上的判断，可能性很小。我的判断[A].V至[B].C为调整浪，理由是：
1. 主要指标如MACD和RSI轴线大时间跨度的顶和底同时背离，驱动形态只是在起始和末端有局部背离；
2. 2011年10月份的[A]与2010年4月份的[A].V有重叠区域，不符合驱动形态的标准，也不像Ending Diagonal；
3. 2010年4月到今年4月的两年里成交量明显递减和萎缩。然而驱动浪里的成交量呈增长之势，是放大的。

谢谢回复！

snowrider

现在从大浪上看：普遍认为是ABC调整浪，还是I，II，III，。。 上升浪？ 我想说的是2009 三月以来浪的普遍说法。

Wen2012abc - 若是妳問網路上其它玩波的人的看法 他們大部分是看空頭市場下跌的第1大浪已經在2007開始 而從2009以來的是第2大浪
若是妳問偶的看法 偶是猜一個超大三角型調整浪是從2000以來 而從2009以來的是這個三角形的第d大浪

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2012-4-9 02:49
首先我要表明，标注记号完全是学习您的，这是我一再坚持您是我老师的理由之一。
为了简化特意降了一级别， ...

大牛 - 偶恢常高興你也在數上證指數 謝謝你分享 這是偶目前的數法 偶會仔細研究你的看法

大牛Steve

回复 snowrider 的帖子

起始于1月初的最后的反弹（调整）浪，就是[B].C.e之后的那一上升浪，以形态的分辨大概在2月初便可以确定了其性质了。
既然是反弹（调整）浪，那就是说还有再创新低的条件，[B].C至少还得往右边挪，目前没有完结。

snowrider

Quote from ScalperJoe:

Got it, thanks.  However, I'm curious as to how you get the 960 target, and what is the scenario for it to occur this year?

If it breaks 1,320 then perhaps it goes flatline to around 1,250-1,290 range during mid-summer (near mid-point of 5 wave pattern which began last October), before closing out in the black for 2012.

Without some climactic event (war, lack of additional QE, hyperinflation, Euro/dollar collapse, etc), I'm not sure the market is poised break the prior two years of intrayear lows and to fall to 960.  I'm not suggesting it won't retrace on the larger wave count eventually, just not by the end of this year.

Your thoughts, comments?

ScalperJoe - Thanks for nice commenting.  About the 960 area target, it is just at a 0.382 fib ratio from 2009-03 lo to the recent hi.  I would like to take back what I mentioned last time about the timing of the end of this year.  I mentioned that because I wanted to load something for next year by the end of this year.  The actual timing could be 2013-09 to see the big cycle low.  When the time is there, and when the price is at a fib ratio (say, 0.5 at 1045), that will be an excellent opportunity to load.

snowrider

Quote from toc:
Snowrider,

given that you have been doing the EW for sometime now, what percentage of your calls prove to be good.  have never been into EW although use Fib retracements etc. at times.

toc - The successful rate of my purple lines (preferred counts) is about 50% (half-half), so it is nothing special and nothing significant by simply following my purple lines.  However, the good thing and advantage of using EW for trading because it provides some strict rules so that we know where to go and where to stop once our preferred counts are wrong.

snowrider

Quote from ScalperJoe:

snowrider,

Given the recent swings in SPX, is it safe to interpret the past five down bars as "A" and today's snap back rally as "B" of Wave 4, which may last a few more days, followed by a "C" wave back down?  The way I read the current pattern, the SPX falls below its current 50 day moving average of 1,370 again, thus completing the A-B-C pattern in Wave 4.

However, I find the difficulty in EW analysis is in attempting to pinpoint the accuracy of when Wave 4 ends and when Wave 5 begins, until of course after the fact!

ScalperJoe - Yes, that is a way of counting this if we predict that the downward movement is in ABC mode.  Another way of counting this is to treat the 5 down bars as wave 1 of the downward movement, so we just about finishing wave 2.  There are many other ways of counting this.  My trading philosophy is trying to lay out as many possible counts as I can, and then watch those critical area to see if there is any reversal sign (in order to confirm which count is more likely and to trade).

大牛Steve

雪骑老大，发现到一个错误，我更新了2000年至2003年之间的数浪。
同时把道指和标普并列在一起，可以对比出走势的差异。

道指


标普

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2012-4-14 11:39
雪骑老大，发现到一个错误，我更新了2000年至2003年之间的数浪。
同时把道指和标普并列在一起，可以对比出 ...

大牛 - 偶猜你道指2011高點有 typo 可能是 [[B]].[C].V

snowrider

04/14/2012

Comments are welcome!

大牛Steve

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

did a whole day of yard work. Exhausted, but got refreshed right away when seeing your update.

snowrider

snowrider,
the count of the "thewavetrading" since the oct. 2011 low for the S&P is more logic for me than yours:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/51/ewsp124.png/
Sixer

Sixer - Thanks for sharing your thought!  Yes, yours is a valid and good count.  I have had similar count before changing to the current one.  If we count that way, the wave-IV (your (4) wave) could also be counted as a flat.  See the following old post:



And your count:

snowrider

前兩天也有人跟偶討論到這個 這個偶沒貼 現在貼

Quote from EliteThink:

the odds of that occuring in an election year for the spx are low.  1325-1340 should be solid support.

EliteThink - Thanks for sharing your thought!

snowrider

are you bullish on SPY for mid-term since you are holding UPRO

bucks - 問得好!  偶中期及長期都看空 ... 看大空頭!  但是偶不確定的是中期 目前偶波的算法是[A]-[B]-[C] (over) 然後向下數 ... 偶不知它是否會走成 [I]-[II]-[III]-[IV]-[V] where the [I] is the [A],  [II] is the [B], [III] is the [C] ... 所以偶持有UPRO以防萬一有個[V]上去.

snowrider

04/21/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

Quote from Wide Tailz:

So we all anticipate the SP500 coming down from the bear flag.  This consensus makes me nervous... traders rarely agree!

Wide Tailz - Thanks for commenting.  I am nervous too because the market won't let people make money so easily.  See my purple line wave count has a wave-2 in a bull trap formation.  I would like to see a pop before the market starts moving down.