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发表于 2011-5-24 12:19 PM
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转贴一个大熊的发言。
From David Rosenberg's latest Breakfast with Rosie, from Gluskin Sheff
Reality Check:
The S&P 500 is no higher now than it was on February 7. Yet, so many pundits still believe we are in a flaming bull market.
QE2 failed to provide for a sustained acceleration in the pace of economic activity.
The housing inventory background is horrible
Over half of the NYSE is now trading below its 50-day moving average (thanks to Richard Russell).
M3 has fallen at a 1.5% annual rate since QE2 started (thanks to CLSA's Russell Napier); in other words, credit is still not being created.
The Nasdaq is the first of the major averages to have broken below both the 100-day and 50-day moving averages. The Dow and S&P 500 have so far just pierced the former, but we all know the Nasdaq is a leading indicator. As an aside, in the last 12 months the Dow has broken below its 50-day moving average three times and from that point to the interim bottom, we saw the Dow plummet 4.5%.
Ditto for FTSE, on an international scale, and it is down 1.1% year-to-date. Same goes for the cyclically-sensitive Korean Kospi, which is now flat for the year.
Whenever bond yields and bank stocks go down in tandem, it rarely foreshadows anything good. So far this year, the yield on the 10-year note is down 11 basis points while financials have sunk 2.9% and underperformed the market by 765bps.
If inflation is on everyone's brain, then why is the S&P 500 basic materials sector the only other one down for the year?
So many things are at critical technical junctures too:
The 10-year note hugging the 200-day moving average (and the 50- and 100-day trendlines are now heading down in yield).
But gold was up yesterday on the same day that the dollar was up — and bullion is hugging the bullish 50-day m.a. line very nicely.
The CRB has broken below each of the 50- and 100- day trendlines and there is 5% to the downside before the 200-day threshold is tested.
For the loonie, which too has suffered the indignation of breaking through the 50- and 100-day lines, is 2.2% away from that key test.
Oil just broke below the 100-day m.a.
But even with oil down, the Transports are giving it up — down 1% yesterday even in the face of a 2.4% slide in oil prices — and down in seven of the past nine sessions (when Transports sell off when oil is down then a very important bearish economic signal is being flashed).
The DXY has already broken the 50-day ma. to the upside and is on the precipice of taking out the 100-day. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-5-24 12:08 PM
