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xiaoxiaozhang

大姐，你怎么这么没幽默感？小屁孩是夸年轻的玩笑。有必要上身到personal attack吗？168大家都说对方是中年萎缩男。大度点好不好？

我在这个THREAD都没回你的帖子。不要抓到一点就看见曙光似的。
dave_liu 发表于 2009-7-1 12:54

QQQ

Dave， I think this imbalancing is correct, today's OIL EIA report shows less bullish as expect so OIL sold off. $USD is under pressure for tomorrow's 30 yr bond report. and technically lost 80 is certainly bearish.
EUR is a carry trade for EUROpean mkt, so we witnessed how it act near 12:00PM when European mkt closed at 12:00PM.
The money being flowing into U.S mkt between 12 am to 12:00pm is not just U.S buyers.
China post PMI number last night with 53.2 boosted Copper, coal, OIL stocks in mainland china gives optimistics from overseas, but yesterday's USDA (agriculture) report crashed wheat and corn future, so this is again a big mess mkt.

dave_liu

Dave 兄，讲讲 SPX，CL， EUR，吧，我已经讲了，你也说说，现在可是关键点位 for SPX/ES, $WTIC/CL, EUR:USD (becomes carry trade these days), and $USD.

我们讨论一下？
QQQ 发表于 2009-7-1 13:20

首先，近来石油跟大盘很多时候正相关。今天不然，所以我不舒服。现在EUR，GOLD都上了。但是SPX不跟。QM还在探DAY LOW。很DIVERGENCE。

其次，从图上来看，短期SPX 930是关键点。突破了还会走走。但是950一带成交密集，所以要一举过去也不大现实。

另外，这两天，有机构大批卖出，同样也有机构护盘。也是很CONFUSING。

最后，最重要的一点。我觉得熊不要期望过高。不要想什么大跌。搞不好跟中国似的，慢慢上，弄死你。大批踏空的也干瞪眼。

上面是我的看法。从操作上来说。每次下跌我都要想最坏的情况。当成熊来处理。不舒服的时候看着。就像我那个预测系列，每天都强迫自己预测的话，结果比50%好不了多少。但是有把握的时候预测，正确率明显就上来了。TRADING也是一样。

ybgx

每天都强迫自己预测的话，结果比50%好不了多少。但是有把握的时候预测，正确率明显就上来了
操作也一样，这就是散户的优势。

QQQ

Dave, that is good point.
also as always, pre-holiday low volume days, usually 下来就上不去，下去就上不来。
一但错过好几会，难受一天

笑口常开

下来就上不去，下去就上不来

?

QQQ

“有机构大批卖出，同样也有机构护盘。也是很CONFUSING”

IF GS 卖出， then they usually are right, either take profit or postion shorts.

xiaobailong

dave, 今天SPX已经长了1%了啊，不少了呢，怎么叫没跟呢？
Q姐，好像明天才是pre holiday吧？

dave_liu

Dave, that is good point.
also as always, pre-holiday low volume days, usually 下来就上不去，下去就上不来。
一但错过好几会，难受一天
QQQ 发表于 2009-7-1 13:36

TRADING就不要怕错过机会。

其实你后悔后还会发现，机会蛮多的。为错过的机会去后悔不值得。下功夫抓住下一个机会才是重要的。

xiaobailong

“有机构大批卖出，同样也有机构护盘。也是很CONFUSING”

IF GS 卖出， then they usually are right, either take profit or postion shorts.
QQQ 发表于 2009-7-1 13:42

那GS现在是卖出吗？

dave_liu

dave, 今天SPX已经长了1%了啊，不少了呢，怎么叫没跟呢？
Q姐，好像明天才是pre holiday吧？
xiaobailong 发表于 2009-7-1 13:42

Time frame.

xiaobailong

Time frame.
dave_liu 发表于 2009-7-1 13:43

euro 三级跳。 这个divergence倒是挺明显的。

不过GLD上去也不是很多，而且已经跌下来一些了。跟SPX比，差不多。

xiaobailong

下来就上不去，下去就上不来

?
笑口常开 发表于 2009-7-1 13:40

就是说trending  day

xiaobailong

怎么没人说话了啊？大家都有方向了，只有我一个人茫然无措？

QQQ

I am in short OIL future and long DTO, and I also shorted POT. I might cover at eod.

OIL CLQ9 usually is pumped during 2:00-2:30PM, so far no signs for that, mkt MM pumper is not in house? without pump oil, this mkt won't have strength up. Buy financials and reit before tomorrow's NFP? nah. Buy AAPL above 144? nah. then what?

ES is sliding down below intra day volume support zone and that zone now become resistance, volume is so low, money flow is net negative on the past hour

dave_liu

Resistance or support? I am always confused by the term you guys used.

应该是向上是阻力，向下是支撑啊。哪里不对？

I am in short OIL future and long DTO, and I also shorted POT. I might cover at eod.

OIL CLQ9 usually is pumped during 2:00-2:30PM, so far no signs for that, mkt MM pumper is not in house? without  ...
QQQ 发表于 2009-7-1 14:13

QQQ

156# dave_liu

Dave, see this, 2 major volume zones created intra-day support and resistance, I normally use that as one of volume benchmarking indicator at real time
now we can see the risk of lossing 920 is so high for bulls because down below there is NO intraday volume support. so bulls better defend 920 line rest of trading time.

dave_liu

156# dave_liu

Dave, see this, 2 major volume zones created intra-day support and resistance, I normally use that as one of volume benchmarking indicator at real time
now we can see the risk of l ...
QQQ 发表于 2009-7-1 14:27

我理解你的意思。我说的是TERM。比如一个股票突破40后到了50，然后从50下来。依照你的意思好像50是支撑，40成阻力了。照我的TERM的话40是支撑，50是阻力。所以我CONFUSED，

QQQ

I see 925 area was support while ES was at 927, but unable to move any higher because OIL sold off. now 925 zone is resistance, unless ES can pass 925, I will not take intra-day longs, if it goes below 920, than that will be a short with 922 volume zone as stop.
This is just one aspect of volume benchmarking, will need combine other indicators.