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发表于 2016-1-9 06:55 AM
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I don't see anyone reading and last week was a stressful trading week - hence I got a bit lazy.
Anyway, to give anyone who's still reading a total picture - I believe the market is close to a bottom timewise but not pricewise. I base this on the fact that SH has seen almost 100 millions inflow between Thursday and Friday. OEX PCR has been in bullish reading for both Thursday and Friday with Friday closing at 0.49. OEX OI PCR has finally dipped below 2 - from 3.x levels back in December. I am also seeing positive moneyflow into DJIA and this is also arguing for a bottom. However I don't believe Friday is the bottom because after such a severe decline, we are not seeing much panic. Instead of 30+ reading on VIX, 2+ reading on Trin, 1.4+ reading on CPC and 1.2+ reading on CPCE, we are seeing some anxiety but not panic as every dip gets bought. We need to see a day with a big gap down and then follow through selling from opening bell to closing bell with an after hour dump (and so far everyday we have seen intraday buying by stubborn bulls or scared bears). That day should finally result in a Trin/Vix/CPC/CPCE spiking into fear range. The next day, we should see a gap down with further selling in the morning - finally with big buying in late morning or afternoon to see a candle with long shadow. Normally on the third day, we should see the low on the real body of the candle retested and then we lift off - this will mark a sustainable bottom. Look at the Aug bottom 2015 and Oct bottom 2014 to get an idea what I am talking about. Another bottoming sequence would be similar to Sept 2015 bottoms where you see a consolidation range before final breakout.
Either way, the final few days of a bear move will see huge range and hence it's dangerous to get long until we confirm a bottom. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2015-12-22 11:35 AM
发表于 2016-1-9 08:37 AM
