Using 缠论 reading current market

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-8 05:19 PM
Where did you see "5min magnitude 趋势背驰"? could you please post a chart if possible?

On 1F l ...

I have to say sorry that I was not focused just now when saying 趋势背驰. But that is a potential 背驰，since today's down move is weaker than yesterday's. I will post chart later~

milan1126

Here is my 5min SPY chart. It only has 1 中枢 and is currently in 背驰段，I guess austinjoe uses SPX chart so he can only see 1 线段 in my 中枢 on 5min chart

milan1126

这一波出人意料的猛，居然杀回5分钟级别最后一个中枢了~

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-9 11:29 AM
这一波出人意料的猛，居然杀回5分钟级别最后一个中枢了~

OE effects plus AAPL and GOOG short squeeze. Think about spx has dropped about 60 points this week. 20 points bounce is just perfect.

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-9 03:24 PM
OE effects plus AAPL and GOOG short squeeze. Think about spx has dropped about 60 points this we ...

You are absolutely right on the OE effect. But anyway, the up move from 137.03-139.42 is just a 1min次级别，no trade signal when Obama appeared and the tatical long got stopped out.  

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-9 02:32 PM
You are absolutely right on the OE effect. But anyway, the up move from 137.03-139.42 is just a 1m ...

Yep, unless you op at 1F线段, this is not the money that CHAN student could earn.

austinjoe

11/09/2012 close, SPX finished 5th 1F down 线段 from yesterday,  then it finished 3 new 1F线段 , the 4th 1F 线段 down run is not completed yet till close. 11/07 low 1388 to 11/09 high 1391 could be viewed as a 5F 中枢 and spx close bellow it. Today 3 new 1F线段 formed a 1F 中枢 [1378.65, 1387.77]. Watch if 3rd sell point will show up next week for these 2 中枢.

bucks

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-9 04:01 PM
11/09/2012 close, SPX finished 5th 1F down 线段 from yesterday,  then it finished 3 new 1F线段 , the ...

你的 5F 中枢 是在5min 还是 10min 图上的线段中枢？ 今天的走法还不能确定对上一个下跌线段的破坏吧？那其实还只有 两个线段，还无法最终确定中枢。

不知我的理解对不对？

hellofriend

austinjoe

hellofriend 发表于 2012-11-10 01:52 AM

Please share your thoughts here except that watering

austinjoe

bucks 发表于 2012-11-9 03:51 PM
你的 5F 中枢 是在5min 还是 10min 图上的线段中枢？ 今天的走法还不能确定对上一个下跌线段的破坏吧？那 ...

It is 5F zone on 1min chart. Please refer to my 2012-11-09-weekly CHAN chart update.

3456 form a 1F zone, 7 escape, 8 bounce up could not touch zone, it is 1F 3rd sell point. Then it either form a new 1F zone and not over lap the 3456 to make a 1F down trend, OR form a high level zone, 11-12 bounce up to zone 3456, hence a 1F down trend is void. View it this way (3456)+(6789)+(9101112), then spx formed a 5F zone. Till Fri close, 14-15 is not finished yet and it is still inside 5F zone. Now you could compare any further drop strength to the first drop from 1433--1387 to decide whether a bounce up is due. Using measured move 1391 -- point 12, minus 46 will lead to 1345, which is bellow spx Aug 2012 low 1354, this is why I come to a wild guess 1354 for this round bear run.

IMO, this bear will not stop at 3 5F level movement, 5 is more likely. But more important to watch is after bear finish this 30F level move, would bull be able to take new high > 1474 in next 30F up run. If not, then spx will face the same level down as 05/2011--09/2011.

bucks

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-11 01:47 PM
It is 5F zone on 1min chart. Please refer to my 2012-11-09-weekly CHAN chart update.

3456 form  ...

I checked your charts in the other post.  I understand how you defined the 5F zone here, which is however not on the same degree of the 5F zone you draw on your 10min chart. That's where I got confused about your nomenclature. It looks the 5F zone here is indeed a 5分钟图的线段中枢。  

请看下面的5MIN图，当前这个线段未完成，所以我觉得中枢还无法最终确定。下周如果突破向下，则是向下的线段继续。（GUCCI 在它的“线段的破坏”那个帖子中讨论的也是类似的问题。我没有很好的办法，灰色或等待地带吧）。

hellofriend

bucks 发表于 2012-11-11 02:48 PM
I checked your charts in the other post.  I understand how you defined the 5F zone here, which is  ...

excellent analysis.
waiting is good.

bucks

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-11 01:47 PM
It is 5F zone on 1min chart. Please refer to my 2012-11-09-weekly CHAN chart update.

3456 form  ...

I looked at the 5min chart from another perspective, which I like to hear your opinion

Two Bi 中枢 could be drawn on the SPY 5min chart. They have overlapped though. So, it's 中枢扩张 now. Although the closing on Friday is slightly below the 2nd zone, no conclusion could be made yet since the downward Bi is still ongoing. So, it's 中枢震荡。 Compared to the last chart above, this is a different perspective from the 中枢 instead of 线段. By your experience, which one typically works better in terms of unfolding the market. For this scenario, both analysis tell the same story of "WAIT or unclear" for this time frame.

海边玩人

bucks 发表于 2012-11-11 06:08 PM
I looked at the 5min chart from another perspective, which I like to hear your opinion

Two Bi 中 ...

第一、二种画法都可以的，主要是级别的问题。
第二种画法比较明了，是下跌3浪后进入盘整（中枢），属于三卖点，后期还有一跌。
操作上可以在下跌时，越跌越买了。
盘整应该会持续一段时间，所以也可以在盘整箱体下沿买入，上沿卖出，做高抛低吸，降低成本。

海边玩人

这里说的，可以"越跌越买了"，是指如果你的操作级别是5分钟的。
还是应该看一下高级别的走势，判断是否应该介入，避免顺小势、逆大势。

bucks

海边玩人 发表于 2012-11-11 07:33 PM
第一、二种画法都可以的，主要是级别的问题。
第二种画法比较明了，是下跌3浪后进入盘整（中枢），属于三 ...

多谢老大指点，清楚多了。这也是走势的多义性的范畴了吧。

5分级别对我有点快，中枢震荡更没法做了。高级别看，现在还在明显的下跌笔。

austinjoe

bucks 发表于 2012-11-11 05:08 PM
I looked at the 5min chart from another perspective, which I like to hear your opinion

Two Bi 中 ...

Both 画法 from your post 152 / 154 are ok. However, you need to keep in mind that your are based on 5 min chart, hence you may missing some details compared to 1Min chart. As I stated, the 1F /5F / 30F .. 中枢 are based from 1Min chart 1F线段 to build up. In my 1Min chart, there is clearly 9 1F线段 that could make up a 5F中枢. SPX is 中枢震荡 around this 5F中枢.

Here are some 缠师的 words on 显微镜 -- 教你炒股票63：替各位理理基本概念 (2007-07-02 00:07:39)

"进而，就有了不同级别显微镜的比喻。而实际上，一般能得到的图，最多也就是1分钟级别的，因此，可以从这个图入手。当然，也可以从5分钟，甚至更高入手，但这就等于把显微镜倍数弄小了，看到的东西自然没有1分钟的多且清楚。再次强调，什么级别的图和什么级别的中枢没有任何必然关系，走势类型以及中枢就如同显微镜下的观察物，是客观存在的，其存在性由上面所说最原始的递归定义保证，而级别的图，就如同显微镜，不同倍数的看这客观的图就看到不同的精细程度，如此而已。所以，不能把显微镜和显微镜观察的东西混在一起了。
如果我们首先确立了显微镜的倍数，也就是说，例如我们把1分钟图作为最基本的图，那么就可以开始定义上一课程说的分型、笔、线段等等。有了线段，就可以定义1分钟的中枢，然后就是1分钟的走势类型，然后按照递归的方法，可以逐步定义5分钟、30分钟、日、周、月、季度、年的中枢和走势类型。而有的人总是不明白，例如总是在问，5分钟图怎么看，30分钟怎么看，其实，如果你选择5分钟或30分钟为最基本的图，那么和1分钟的看法一样，只不过你的显微镜倍数比较小，看起来比较粗糙而已。而如果你已经选择1分钟作为最基本的图，也就是选定了1分钟这个倍数的显微镜，那么看1分钟图就可以，所以，本ID也就不断在1分钟图上进行线段的记号来示范。"

教你炒股票53：三类买卖点的再分辨 (2007-05-23 08:47:18)
"再者，关于级别的问题，如果想不明白，可以当成用不同倍数的显微镜去看一滴水，由此当然会看出不同的精细度，级别之与走势也一样。一个最简单的例子，三个5分钟级别的走势重叠构成一个30分钟中枢，站在30分钟级别的角度，5分钟的走势都可以看成就是一个线段，没有内部结构的，这线段的高低点就是对应5分钟走势的高低点；而站在5分钟的次级别1分钟上看，每段5分钟的高低点都不绝对是在5分钟走势的结束或开始位置，当然，按1分钟的级别重新用结合律重新组合，总能让高低点分别在开始或结束的位置，但站在分笔的级别上，这又不行了。为什么？因为当我们用1分钟的级别重新组合时，其实就先把分笔上的级别都看成没有结构的线段了。这是十分自然的，就像我们研究猴子的行为时，如果还考虑其中的每个细胞里包含的分子里的原子里的电子的走势问题，那猴子就不是猴子了。所以，这个原则是必须明确的，例如你决定用30分钟来操作、观察时，其实就已经先假定把所有完成的5分钟走势都看成线段了。"

bucks

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-11 11:11 PM
Both 画法 from your post 152 / 154 are ok. However, you need to keep in mind that your are based o ...

明白了，多谢。

老大你这个回帖事件 可太牛了。

austinjoe

11/12/2012 noon, boring day as spx is 中枢震荡 inside 5F中枢 {1373.03 [1388.14, 1391.39] 1403.03}, the closed 1F中枢 to watch is  {1373.03 [1378.65, 1387.77] 1391.39}. Bear still has edge over bull now as to turn around down run, bull has to hit 1391.39 first then 1403.03.