06/03/2009 白天灌水

ychen222

CPCE is very very different from CPC.
They are not the same thing.

Extreme CPC is useful in short term swing trade.
In contrast, CPCE is an intermediate term signal.

Today CPCE will be around  ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-3 11:07

Got it.
记不清是那一次，CPC大涨然后大盘猛跌，但CPC大涨与大盘猛跌有一个一两天的时间差，所以明天还是难说。

Braveheart

typo, oid -> oil

hutong9

122# Braveheart
2.9 M barrels

xyin

122# Braveheart
2.9 M barrels
hutong9 发表于 2009-6-3 11:21

这个数据的解释是什么， 好还是不好？

seabiscuit

114# xiaobailong
你看到的结果，并不是简单的加减，或taking average, median, etc.  很多时候都要考虑the underlying sampling design, which is usually very complex.  所以有复杂统计模型在后面，比如说，怎样调整sampling weights, 就是很复杂的统计问题。模型一旦复杂了，就会有很多assumptions, 这些假设可能在经济好的时候还行,经济不好时， 就greatly violated, 造成结果有偏.

happyface

这个数据的解释是什么， 好还是不好？
xyin 发表于 2009-6-3 11:22

库存增加了2.9 million barrels, 所以油就跌了

xiaobailong

114# xiaobailong
你看到的结果，并不是简单的加减，或taking average, median, etc.  很多时候都要考虑the underlying sampling design, which is usually very complex.  所以有复杂统计模型在后面，比如说，怎 ...
seabiscuit 发表于 2009-6-3 11:24

但是为什么要在下一次发布数据的时候，才纠正上一次的数字呢，难道不能在中间发现了的时候就纠正吗?

其实，这些assumptions对中国也适用啊。对不对?

开小差

不看油数据都知道要跌。

chameleon

现在cpce 0.87意味着什麽？

seabiscuit

127# xiaobailong

You are smart.  I asked the very same question to her.  She said she was not sure how the revised numbers came out.  Maybe because some companies those who did badly delayed in sending out data or even some small businesses went out of business???

中国的统计局， I have no idea.  But I do think politics play a vital role.

nasd

108# seabiscuit

What a joke......

"...Since the Bureau aims at working independently, there should not be much political impact on their data analyses..."

dfw

108# seabiscuit


Don't think so.
Looking at Justice Department!!!

seabiscuit

131# nasd


I do not trust this completely. That's why I discussed it with her.  I did this even when I knew this question was not so friendly.

seabiscuit

130# seabiscuit

Maybe the census bureau is unbiased in their analyses.  However, those companies tried to report false data to the Bureau, for some obvious reason?

Persistance

库存增加了2.9 million barrels, 所以油就跌了
happyface 发表于 2009-6-3 11:24

I bet they were liers last week, similar to other data!

Cobra

现在cpce 0.87意味着什麽？
chameleon 发表于 2009-6-3 11:35

那数据是错的，应该是0.8现在。这个表示可能2.8.0破位，也就是说有可能昨天是中期的顶。俺已经不敢说了，这是第三次call了，前两次都错了，呵呵。

zhyuan04

hehe, don't you remember the third time is the charm?

那数据是错的，应该是0.8现在。这个表示可能2.8.0破位，也就是说有可能昨天是中期的顶。俺已经不敢说了，这是第三次call了，前两次都错了，呵呵。
Cobra 发表于 2009-6-3 11:49

nasd

那数据是错的，应该是0.8现在。这个表示可能2.8.0破位，也就是说有可能昨天是中期的顶。俺已经不敢说了，这是第三次call了，前两次都错了，呵呵。
Cobra 发表于 2009-6-3 11:49

The 3rd time is the charm?

zhyuan04

looks like an intraday bear flag is forming.

136# Cobra

firephenix

那数据是错的，应该是0.8现在。这个表示可能2.8.0破位，也就是说有可能昨天是中期的顶。俺已经不敢说了，这是第三次call了，前两次都错了，呵呵。
Cobra 发表于 2009-6-3 11:49

不要怕， 这时你的地盘，没人敢撒野。。。