12/20/2011 白天灌水

ysc

o8 please shut up.

greenback

One of tomorrow's news pieces for MM to cook the market will be the payroll tax stalemate ...

silicon_beaver

福多多 发表于 2011-12-20 10:32
haha, p-bar.  MM tells us today's gap will be filled sometime in the future.

btw, I call it 定海神针.

福多多

回复 xiaochong 的帖子

下班回家核实了再PM你。

sycamores

回复 silicon_beaver 的帖子

this sounds reasonable. But how can they test?

greenback

sycamores 发表于 2011-12-20 15:05
回复 greenback 的帖子

me too. Still full short position./ kind of nervous now

When you short in a bear market, you have to get ready to take violent rebound ... don't use margin ...

sycamores

回复 greenback 的帖子

keyword: BEAR MARKET. Thanks.

北京哥哥

这根本不是什么Santa Rally, 而是DT的天堂。

silicon_beaver

sycamores 发表于 2011-12-20 11:08
回复 silicon_beaver 的帖子

this sounds reasonable. But how can they test?

How is it triggered, I don't know (what's conditions to trigger it).

But it's sure, this test is scheduled/programmed in advance. it's a trade with huge vol. (hence normal buy/sell orders cannot absorb it).

For today's P-bar event, it's programmed at 13:30:00. that's a fact easy to verify.

RedCedar

that p-bar was at 13:30pm @ 120.37
but could not find the trade data for it

........
.......
13:30:22         $ 123.7216         300
13:30:22         $ 123.7218          100
13:30:21         $ 123.72         100
13:30:21         $ 123.72          100
13:30:21         $ 123.72         100
13:30:20         $ 123.721          505
13:30:20         $ 123.721         100
13:30:19         $ 123.72          100
13:30:19         $ 123.72         100
13:30:19         $ 123.72          100
13:30:19         $ 123.72         100
13:30:19         $ 123.729          505
13:30:19         $ 123.72         300
13:30:19         $ 123.72          200
13:30:19         $ 123.72         100
13:30:19         $ 123.72          300
13:30:19         $ 123.73         300
13:30:19         $ 123.73          100
13:30:19         $ 123.73         100
13:30:19         $ 123.73          100
13:30:19         $ 123.73         100
13:30:19         $ 123.73          100
13:30:19         $ 123.73         100
13:30:19         $ 123.72          300
13:30:19         $ 123.73         100
13:30:19         $ 123.72          100
13:30:18         $ 123.72         200
13:30:18         $ 123.72          100
13:30:18         $ 123.721         300
13:30:18         $ 123.721          200
13:30:18         $ 123.7202         100
13:30:18         $ 123.7206          100
13:30:17         $ 123.729         111
13:30:16         $ 123.72          194
13:30:16         $ 123.72         100
13:30:16         $ 123.72          100
13:30:16         $ 123.72         100
13:30:16         $ 123.72          200
13:30:16         $ 123.72         106
13:30:16         $ 123.72          100
13:30:16         $ 123.7201         800
13:30:15         $ 123.7201          300
13:30:15         $ 120.3702         1,001,633
13:30:13         $ 123.73          100
13:30:13         $ 123.73         200
13:30:12         $ 123.73          1,700
13:30:12         $ 123.73         100
13:30:12         $ 123.73          100
13:30:12         $ 123.73         100
13:30:12         $ 123.73          100
13:30:12         $ 123.73         1,200
13:30:12         $ 123.73          1,200
13:30:12         $ 123.73         100
13:30:12         $ 123.73          200
13:30:12         $ 123.73         100
13:30:12         $ 123.73          600
13:30:12         $ 123.73         200
13:30:12         $ 123.73          100
13:30:12         $ 123.73         100
13:30:12         $ 123.73          500
13:30:12         $ 123.73         100
13:30:12         $ 123.73          100
13:30:12         $ 123.725         100
13:30:11         $ 123.73          500
13:30:11         $ 123.74         512
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         100
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         600
13:30:11         $ 123.74          200
13:30:11         $ 123.74         100
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         500
13:30:11         $ 123.73          100
13:30:11         $ 123.73         100
13:30:11         $ 123.75          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         100
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         200
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         100
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.73         3,800
13:30:11         $ 123.73          1,100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         600
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         100
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         100
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         400
13:30:11         $ 123.74          100
13:30:11         $ 123.74         100
13:30:11         $ 123.73          600
13:30:11         $ 123.73         100
13:30:11         $ 123.73          100
13:30:11         $ 123.73         100
13:30:11         $ 123.73          100
13:30:11         $ 123.73         100
13:30:11         $ 123.73          100
13:30:11         $ 123.73         100
13:30:11         $ 123.73          101
13:30:11         $ 123.73         1,800
13:30:11         $ 123.73          100
13:30:11         $ 123.73         400
13:30:11         $ 123.73          100
13:30:11         $ 123.73         200
13:30:11         $ 123.73          400
13:30:11         $ 123.73         600
13:30:11         $ 123.73          200
13:30:11         $ 123.73         100
13:30:11         $ 123.73          100
13:30:11         $ 123.73         1,900
13:30:10         $ 123.72          800
13:30:10         $ 123.721         300
13:30:10         $ 123.721          300
13:30:10         $ 123.7205         300
13:30:09         $ 123.72          100
13:30:09         $ 123.72         100
13:30:09         $ 123.73          1,000
13:30:09         $ 123.72         600
13:30:09         $ 123.72          500
13:30:09         $ 123.72         300
13:30:09         $ 123.72          100
13:30:08         $ 123.721         300
13:30:08         $ 123.721          400
13:30:08         $ 123.721         500
13:30:08         $ 123.7225          200
13:30:07         $ 123.72         161
13:30:07         $ 123.72          100
13:30:06         $ 123.72         100
13:30:06         $ 123.72          100
13:30:03         $ 123.7254         100
13:30:03         $ 123.7254          400
13:30:03         $ 123.72         200
13:30:02         $ 123.72          200
13:30:02         $ 123.72         355
13:30:02         $ 123.72          145
13:30:02         $ 123.72         300
13:30:02         $ 123.72          713
13:30:01         $ 123.73         600

lionking819

silicon_beaver 发表于 2011-12-20 14:02
Or, simply say,
MM tests market strength. p-bar is what the test result (an impulse can reach)

多谢两位老大！学习了。

Cobra

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... &p=51729#p51729

wyemlyy

greenback 发表于 2011-12-20 14:07
One of tomorrow's news pieces for MM to cook the market will be the payroll tax stalemate ...

请问这是什么时候出来? Calendar上没看到啊

福多多

回复 RedCedar 的帖子

It is traded yesterday close.

silicon_beaver

RedCedar 发表于 2011-12-20 11:14
that p-bar was at 13:30pm @ 120.37
but could not find the trade data for it

point your mouse to the p-bar, on SPY chart. it tells the vol. normally, at least, millions.

Cobra

xiaochong 发表于 2011-12-20 14:02
班长，我比较愚钝，为啥
Anyway, see dashed blue lines? Now you can clearly see who's leading today ...

相对于以前的高点，就SPY反弹的最高，其他都没有他走得远。

greenback

Here is a news analysis behind yesterday and today's price actions:

ECB’s Christmas liquidity boost
December 20, 2011, 2:03 PM

The European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operation, which seems to be rippling through markets in advance of bidding results announced Wednesday, may be a boon to debt-stretched European nations now. But it raises some worrisome questions about what happens if it’s really successful — and European banks stock up on even more sovereign debt.

First a little explainer about what’s happening.

On December 8, the ECB announced a series of liquidity operations designed to ease a credit squeeze that had been driving up yields on benchmark Italian and Spanish debt to eye-popping, unsustainable levels over 6%. The news was largely overshadowed by keen market disappointment that the ECB’s Mario Draghi didn’t signal the central bank was ready to expand its own sovereign-debt purchase program to backstop skyrocketing yields. Read ECB’s announcement.

One of those operations, dubbed LTRO, allows  banks to borrow three-year loans at a  discount against a wider range of collateral, presumably to spur them into buying European sovereign debt in the place of the ECB. Those cheap loans — the Wall Street Journal notes rates could hover around 1% — look attractive compared to  Italian yields of about 6% for both 5-year and 10-year bonds. Read another explainer at BusinessInsider.com.

Analysts said some of Tuesday’s drop in Italian and Spanish bond yields, and corresponding big-time rally in U.S. stocks and easing in the safe-haven dollar, may have to do with European banks buying up debt in advance of the operation.

Here’s what currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman says:

    The ECB will conduct its first 3-year repo operation tomorrow.  Yet it is already having an influence on the capital markets. Some banks are thought to have been buying short-term Spanish and Italian bonds that will ostensibly be used for collateral, for example.

According to Chandler, the ECB offered one-day financing to bridge the maturing 7-day repo and Wednesday’s operations, when banks can chose between a 7-day facility, a 3-month facility and the 3-year long-term repurchasing operation.

Given what banks did when the ECB tried a similar operation in June 2009, “we suspect that the results will be at the upper end of market expectations,” said Chandler, or between 100 billion euros and 400 billion euros.

But is a big participation rate — ie European banks loading up on more sovereign debt — really a good thing, and will related enthusiasm last?

Kathleen Brooks, London-based currency analyst at Forex.com,  wonders if  “this is the last ECB-fuelled swan song for the markets.”

“Banks are trying to boost capital levels and de-leverage so why would they want to buy sovereign debt from the currency bloc when there seems no end in sight to the debt crisis?”

– Laura Mandaro

greenback

wyemlyy 发表于 2011-12-20 15:21
请问这是什么时候出来? Calendar上没看到啊

Please check it out at MarketWatch.com ...

ysc

google

QWE 发表于 2011-12-20 14:46
熊市里，做SHORT比较安全些。做LONG很危险！

严格说现在不是熊市，从８月看过来，现在是宽幅震荡盘整，从年初看过来，现在也基本在一水平线附近，从０９年看过来，仍然是上升趋势