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楼主: Cobra

[灌水] 11/17/2011 白天灌水

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发表于 2011-11-17 01:39 PM | 显示全部楼层


他大爷的,这孙子就不能让熊熊痛快几天?!


Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said there’s more the Fed could do to boost the economy, such as providing clearer guidance on how long interest rates will stay low or resuming asset purchases.

“I am deeply unhappy with the current forecast of prolonged high unemployment, and will continue to review whether there is more that we could do that would bring more benefit than cost,” Dudley, 58, said in the text of remarks today at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, New York.

Dudley said it would be “desirable” for the Fed to offer more guidance on the economic conditions that policy makers would need to see before raising interest rates from close to zero. He also said that if the Fed opted to buy more bonds, “it might make sense” for much of those to consist of mortgage- backed securities to boost the housing market.

“We could purchase more longer-term financial assets,” Dudley said today. “If additional asset purchases were deemed appropriate, it might make sense to do much of this in the mortgage-backed securities market. This would have a greater direct impact on the housing market and would be less likely to disrupt market functioning compared with further purchases in the Treasury market.”
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:42 PM | 显示全部楼层
Whigs 发表于 2011-11-18 02:29
其实,昨天盘后AMAT的Guidance, 是对未来经济走势的最好注解。
至于股市怎么走,希望你还没有彻底认为它和 ...

现在市场的悲观是在自加强(self- reinforcing)这的确是可怕的

所以现在同样是反身性有可能出现的经典时刻(期)

我在上面放了一张图 一会儿我再补一张图来描述经济的状况或许不像媒体渲染的那么强烈...
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:42 PM | 显示全部楼层
btw, the 'lock' (tm) target is always trend reversal target.
always, no exception.

点评

Thanks a lot!  发表于 2011-11-17 01:52 PM
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:43 PM | 显示全部楼层
X!nG 发表于 2011-11-17 13:37
说实话 我确实愚笨 我不认为现在是08年

所以我认为金融的upside risk 要远大于downside

当然不是08年了。
08年不过只是个热身罢了。
待惊涛骇浪,还看今朝!
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
Whigs 发表于 2011-11-18 02:43
当然不是08年了。
08年不过只是个热身罢了。
待惊涛骇浪,还看今朝!

...

挺好
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
X!nG 发表于 2011-11-17 13:37
说实话 我确实愚笨 我不认为现在是08年

所以我认为金融的upside risk 要远大于downside

looks like treasury bond rate, right?
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
Global Dollar Liquidity Freeze Leads To Pervasive Sell Off
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gl ... vasive-liquidations

Just two charts confirming that we have entered a complete USD liquidity lock up, and that the global coordinated USD swap line rescue operation will be launched any minute: both the US FRA-OIS and the EUR Basis Swap are at multi year extremes. The entire dollar funding market is now at levels not seen since the Lehman collapse and is effectively frozen. Only this time it is much, much worse as never before has the global central bank cadre been assumed and implied to be backstopping the global liquidity cascade. Ex-out the implied backstop by the monetary authorities, and liquidity is now locked up more than ever in the history of capital markets. The liquidity crunch explains why everyone is liquidating the one asset that is performing best YTD to procure much needed dollars - gold.
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
littletiger 发表于 2011-11-17 13:50
looks like treasury bond rate, right?

check this one

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发表于 2011-11-17 01:55 PM | 显示全部楼层
littletiger 发表于 2011-11-17 13:50
looks like treasury bond rate, right?

check this one too

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR:IND
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
Euro Debt Worries Shift to Spain and France
New York Times - 30 minutes ago
By DAVID JOLLY PARIS - Italy, the third-largest economy of the euro bloc
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
2 PM
牛牛,pray hard!
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发表于 2011-11-17 01:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
littletiger 发表于 2011-11-18 02:50
looks like treasury bond rate, right?

不是美债收益率 是Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 但美债收益率和她高度相关

为啥应该不需要我解释吧

给你把二者放在一起比较下 你看着会很直观 上面是10年美债收益率 下面是“意外指数”
1.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-11-17 02:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-11-17 02:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
Double bottom? Looks like day low is in?
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发表于 2011-11-17 02:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Whigs 于 2011-11-17 14:10 编辑
X!nG 发表于 2011-11-17 13:59
不是美债收益率 是Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 但美债收益率和她高度相关

为啥应该不需要我解释 ...


我真是愚钝的不行了
还真没看出这二者有多少相关。

10美债收益率, 和QE & OT直接相关。
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发表于 2011-11-17 02:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-11-17 02:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
TNA (30min 的图) 在几个下降的蜡烛以后,画了一个十字。照书上讲,买在十字的高点xx% 胜算很大。设了个买点43.10 。 看看能否成交
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发表于 2011-11-17 02:17 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 X!nG 的帖子

xie xie,
thank for educating us. honestly, this is the first time for me to know citi eco surprising index.

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发表于 2011-11-17 02:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
08. 08 就想复习下08
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发表于 2011-11-17 02:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
X!nG 发表于 2011-11-17 13:37
说实话 我确实愚笨 我不认为现在是08年

所以我认为金融的upside risk 要远大于downside

但是,在熊市的正在进行时里,还是避免逆市操作为佳。我也不知道大盘会跌到什么地方,我也不去预测它,跟着大盘往下走,等差不多快到底时,会有很多信号跳出来的。所以,现在就是继续看跌做空,可能大盘会跌到老蛇的目标1000,也可能会跌到600。无所谓跌到哪里,大盘走到哪,我们就抄到哪儿!顺势操作
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