the beauty of trend following

angelafund

I am gona sell all of my jks in the next few days ... definitely sell all before this Friday ... ER next monday.

SPRD is an add if it closes at HOD, reminder though its ER is going to be 12Aug2010, so keep the position managable ...

angelafund

Nice action so far from the market. It would be very nice for the market to burst out of this little consolidation zone.

Top holdings as of 9Aug2010 market close

JKS: 55% (12.8 @ 16Jul2010, fist profit taken 4Aug2010@17.5, 40% gain, ER on 16Aug2010, I may exit all my long position before ER)
NR: 14% ( 7.5 @ 21Jul2010, first profit taken 6Aug2010, 10%)
BIDU: 11% (market open 26Jul2010)
SPRD: 7% (market open 9Aug2010)
OPEN: 4% (before market close 4Aug2010)
CMG: 3.0% (market open 26Jul2010)
CRM: 4% (market open 26Jul2010)

Cut loss:
LSCC: -7% cut loss (sold after semis started to lag, and no upside progress on LSCC)
CAVM -12% cut loss (sold after the bad ER)

Today's trade,

LONG NFLX
LONG SPRD

SPRD is an add if it closes at HOD, reminder though its ER is going to be
12Aug2010, so keep the position managable ...

sunnysunny

smartll

Nice action so far from the market. It would be very nice for the market to burst out of this little ...
angelafund 发表于 2010-8-9 17:51

fatdaddy? :(13):

integra

老大，今天行情怎么看？
是继续持股还是抛掉?

angelafund

Market was hit by a distribution day. All indices close well above the lows. 200MA looks like to be a support.

The rally coming off July low has been on low vol. This is a big concern as low vol rally is prone to high vol sell offs. Although disciplined investment calls for caution, it also calls for participation on the upside as long as the uptrend is intact. There are certainly tons of clueless traders out there calling for tops. The words "Emotional trading" are never in FatDaddy's checkbook.

More cards need to come out of the deck to suggest this rally mode is officially over. Right now, all my top holdings are saying HOLD ME.


Top holdings as of 10Aug2010 market close

JKS: 60% (12.8 @ 16Jul2010, fist profit taken 4Aug2010@17.5, 40% gain, ER on 16Aug2010, I may exit all my long position before ER)
BIDU: 11% (market open 26Jul2010)
NFLX: 6% (market open 9Aug2010)
SPRD: 5% (market open 9Aug2010, first profit taken 5% 10Aug2010, reduce position due to upcoming ER)
MELI: 3% (6Aug2010)

Profit taken,
NR: 7.5 @ 21Jul2010, first profit taken 6Aug2010, 10%; sold all on 10Aug2010 10%;

Cut loss:
LSCC: -7% cut loss (sold after semis started to lag, and no upside progress on LSCC)
CAVM -12% cut loss (sold after the bad ER)
SWKS -4% cut loss due to no performance.

smartll

Market was hit by a distribution day. All indices close well above the lows. 200MA looks like to be  ...
angelafund 发表于 2010-8-11 00:54

老大的JKS真不错啊！当初在SOLF 和 JKS 之间想了一阵，还是选了SOLF.

angelafund

This low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book ...


Very ugly sell off in high vol puts the market back into correction mode. The 6+ week low volume rally attempt is officially dead in my book.

There has been no volume in this entire rally attempt. The best bull markets all start with big volume surge showing convictions from the big boyz. In certain cases, volume can come in later times, but until vol comes in, caution should be taken to get heavily long. This is a great lesson to learn from this 5-6 week rally.

Besides low volume rally, there have been several other cautionary signs,

SOX has been laboring since Mid July, relative strength has been leading to the downside. If you look at INTC, that is a way ugly roll over.

Nasdaq and Small cap's relative strength has been leading lower comparing to July low. That is a dangerous sign in their own right. Investors are staying away from risky assets for this entire rally.

There is no life in retail. If you look at RTH. There is simply no bid.

All things point to the fact that things will get uglier eventually.

Although disciplined investment calls for caution, it also calls for participation on the upside as long as the market trends up.

The idea of trending follow is to never miss a big move. Tons of people missed 2009 March rally. Those who failed to profit from that rally have not learned the lesson, then I don't know what market lessons can save them.

No body knows the future, whether a rally attempt can morph into a full fledgling bull market, or it will be short lived. But by following trend, u will never miss the big move.

Raise cash.

xnz

Thanks for keeping update

angelafund

top gainers after the first buy,

NFLX: 12%; (9Aut2010 first buy; add more 10Aug2010)
BIDU: 5% (market open 26Jul2010; sold 75% on 11Aug2010)
OPEN: 4% (before market close 4Aug2010)
MELI: 1% (6Aug2010)


The numbers speak themselves ... gutone 的 sucker 们 open your ignorant eyes big ... LOL

nstar

coolgal

when will you close your positions?  Thanks.

angelafund

回复 112# coolgal

I exited MELI because I want to hold only the strongest stocks at this moment of time.

I will post my decision here when I exit my last 3 positions.


market is rolling over ... LOL

beautiful ...

when market starts the downtrend ... get out of the way ... u should not care about the couple percent of upside ... protecting capital should become your top priority.

angelafund

top gainers after the first buy,

NFLX: 16%;  (9Aut2010 first buy; add more 10Aug2010)
BIDU: 7% (market open 26Jul2010; sold 75% on 11Aug2010)
OPEN: 7% (before market close 4Aug2010)




NFLX is a hold as long as the market does not have another heavy distribution day ...

angelafund

This market followed through to the upside indicating a possible tradable rally ... I am getting back to the market, currently holding the following,

TNA
ARUN
CMG
CRM
NFLX
GLD
EGO,

If this rally can hold, meaning I need to see my current buy continue to march forward ... I will add more positions ...

What we should care is not what the Friday's job number is or Sept is the worst month of the year. Listening to Pundits' prediction is a loser's game.

Today the market says big and loud, get back to the market and buy the best stocks !

xnz

angelafund

top gainers,

NFLX 5% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 4% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
CMG 4% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CRM 4% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
gld 1% (first buy 25Aug2010)

angelafund

top gainers,

TNA 10% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 6% (first buy 30Aug2010)
NFLX 5% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CRM 5% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CMG 4% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)

angelafund

top gainers,

NFLX 11% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 6% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 7% (first buy 30Aug2010)
CMG 6% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CRM 5% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)



this market has an ok close, i won't complain ...

When the market goes up, hold your best stocks for more gains ... NEVER EVER EVER sell your winners for couple percent of gains ...

angelafund

you know my philosophy on stock market is always price/volume is your first indicator, everything else is secondary ... including economic numbers ...

Stock market is a discounting mechanism of the future, not the present ... price/vol are always ahead of macro economic indicators. You can talk a load of how bad the economic numbers are ... or you can show extreme enthusiasm on economic knowhows ... In the end ... you can't base on the economic information today to RELIABLY infer the market direction tomorrow ... The reason is SIMPLE. Stock market is always ahead.

Always react to the market, not predict the market. Always know what the market is doing and react accordingly.

Will the market crap out on Monday? Sure, if it does, simply hit eject button ...

Here we go, my top gainers as of today's close

NFLX 11% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 7% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 6% (first buy 30Aug2010)
CMG 6% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
BORN 5% (first buy market open 03Sep2010)
CRM 3% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)

I am also holding GMCR, HLF, GLD, EGO

BORN is about to burst out. I am expect it to be another JKS. Someone is accumulating a big lot of BORN (including fatdaddy ... )