2012-08-W3

ethanlinear

雪大，如果这波是[D]，那么[C]会不会显得比[A]短？

还有一个问题请教，[A]只包含了3浪（ABC），如果是上升浪的话，它一定是5浪吗？还是说3浪也可以？A的标示也不是一个局部最高点，能给解释一下吗？

snowrider

Good point!  是的!  如果是如此的劇情 ... 則它將形成 上升斜三角 abcde !
在 上升斜三角 中 ... 是可以每段都以3節浪來完成!

bucks

回复 ethanlinear 的帖子

Usually, I have no target. Wait until it reverses. I'll update here and in my new post.

certainly not yet now.

btw, I am more focused on closing price unless it's a critical turning point.

ethanlinear

回复 snowrider 的帖子

多谢，又学到了。感慨一下，雪大就像一个学术导师一样。

snowrider

ethanlinear 发表于 2012-8-23 11:42 AM
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多谢，又学到了。感慨一下，雪大就像一个学术导师一样。

妳是說偶就像博導? ... 那同學們就都是博士生!  哈哈!  大家一塊閒聊行情所謂教學相長 ...

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-23 08:52 AM
偶今天不能灌太多水  因為一台電腦不知怎麼無法無線上網了

好消息偶終於回來了!  偶試了N多種方法無法修復無線上網斷線的問題 ... 偶懷疑是否網路卡壞了 ... 於是偶拆下網路卡裝到另一台電腦 ... 可以連線表示卡是好的 ... 頭痛!  裝卡回這台電腦 ... 重開機 ... 竟然好了!  真TMD浪費了偶一上午的時間!  現在偶可以開始正式灌水了!

ethanlinear

可能原来的机器的网卡插槽上没有插好，最好要用螺丝固定

snowrider

ethanlinear 发表于 2012-8-23 12:54 PM
可能原来的机器的网卡插槽上没有插好，最好要用螺丝固定

煩人的是偶這網路卡是USB網路卡 ... 不過現在偶知道了 ... 下次同樣狀況出現時偶就重插一下就可以了!

snowrider

No trade for today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:
- IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
- SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- Cash 35%

SAC Troop:
- XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
- QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
- FAS 8% (8%-08/13)
- NUGT 3% (3%-08/21)
- EDZ 8% (8%-08/22)
- Cash 35%

The market fell below yesterday's low and closed as a mid-size black solid candlestick near day low.  Since the critical observation point has been breached, we see possible lower price in next few days.  The preferred wave count for medium term view is also changed a little bit.

Wave count:
07/03's high = [A]
07/24's low = [B]
07/30's high = [C].I
08/02's low = [C].II
08/07's high = [C].III
08/10's low = [C].IV
08/21's high = [C].V
We are in the middle of [D] down wave to 1390 (0.382) or 1377 (0.5) before Labor Day.
After this wave-[D], we will see a wave-[E] to 1485 to finish the bull market.

ethanlinear

Ding

cat2011

Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge.

tang1688

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-23 04:27 PM
No trade for today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:

hi Snowrider, based on the new count, CIII time is shorter than CV time, so the time is not considered in the wave count?  thanks

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-23 04:27 PM
No trade for today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:

also, what do you think nugt? more up? this is strange, the commodities up but spx index down.

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-8-23 08:37 PM
hi Snowrider, based on the new count, CIII time is shorter than CV time, so the time is not consid ...

C.III = 08/02-08/07 = 52
C.V = 08/10-08/21 = 31
So this does not violate the principle.

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-8-23 08:39 PM
also, what do you think nugt? more up? this is strange, the commodities up but spx index down.

http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/06/blog-post.html
雪騎語錄:  所有市場之間的關聯性對偶來說都是不相關

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-23 10:04 PM
C.III = 08/02-08/07 = 52
C.V = 08/10-08/21 = 31
So this does not violate the principle.

ok, so you refer to index difference, i was asking the time difference. thanks

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-8-23 09:36 PM
ok, so you refer to index difference, i was asking the time difference. thanks

OK I see what you mean.  Ideally, wave-3's price range and time span won't be the shortest.  That idea is based on the assumption that wave-3 is moving in the same speed as wave-5, so it will take more time to travel more distance.  In the real world, only the first rule applies.  Time span does not need to be strictly restricted because: 1. the faster the market moves the shorter time it takes, and 2. the slower the market moves the longer time it takes.

Irene2011

谢谢雪骑老大的分享！

snowrider

Irene2011 发表于 2012-8-23 11:27 PM
谢谢雪骑老大的分享！

不客氣!  偶先睡了!  明早起看外匯 ...