My view now

mengtt

mengtt

股事现在往北走只是牛牛的一厢情愿的美好愿望.

Diver

Diver 发表于 2011-9-30 11:53
K,K,K, 这牛路也太崎岖了，俺这个牛车司机不好当呀！下次我请铁道兵把牛路修好了。

同学们，你们今天有 ...

Classmates, are you still on this bull wagon?

Diver 发表于 2011-10-4 12:26
If today closes in green, that is bullish, at least for the mid term. I expect a bear  ...

Diver

Diver 2011-10-4 00:51
I would bet tomorrow is a great buy dip opportunity, just for a bear market rally swing trade, not to mean market reversal to bull market.
.

Diver

Diver 发表于 2011-10-4 17:05
Classmates, are you still on this bull wagon?

几天来，俺这牛车车箱里，连个回音都没有。看来乘客们都被颠簸得晕车了，绝大多数都跳下车了或者掉下车了，呕吐得找不到北了，投奔熊窝去了。

上星期俺告诉大家都坐好了，不要被颠下车，还会再涨；这牛路再艰难险阻、崎岖颠簸，我这牛车车夫一定要把你们送到目的地的。唉，人微言轻呵！大伙儿都信不过俺这土里土气的山寨汉，算啦。

当时惘然

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waiting for better dip to load up, but no chance these two days.

当时惘然

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by the way, what is your target for this rally ?

Diver

SPX 1190 has been reached today.

But it is now confirmed that Oct 4 was trend reversal and was not merely a rebounce. So this rally has more legs to go upside.

1 vs. 1, bulls won.
2 vs. 2, bulls won.
3 vs. 3, bulls won.
4 vs. 4, bulls won.

And two MAD's within five days.

This up swing is the strongest one in last two months and since May 1, 2011. Now we are still in the first upleg. It will be at least two-leg up swing. And I think it should be three-leg up swing because the uptrend momentum is so strong currently.

The first up leg is not over yet. I guess it is likely to continue two more days. It may start pull back from SPX 1220-1230 area (I meant that by the close price on daily chart, not by intraday dip on 5-min or 15-min or hourly chart). SPX 1150 has become strong support now.

If you are still doubting this bull train, wake up.

Diver

当时惘然 发表于 2011-10-6 17:30
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by the way, what is your target for this rally ?

The second up leg of this rally may end in SPX 1290-1300 area.

Diver

Today SPY has punctuated the first resistance wall @119.56 on daily chart.

I guess SPY will challenge the second resistance wall @122.87 and challenge VIX30 area before this swing up wave pulls back on daily chart to accumulate more power for a second attempt.

Jennyahwu

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Diver , you tell me what price to buy back for FCX? please

Jennyahwu

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you r first leg will touch 1220 I guess, then drops to 1150? then go to 1290. thanks

knife

knife

Diver

As there are still some neighbors here paying attention to this post, I am going to update here now.

Today SPX and SPY closed in green as I expected. The market pushed up hard at close to meet my prediction of closing higher high than yesterday.

However, SPX rose only about 1 point at close. This suggests bulls are very tired and exhausted now, running out of steam. So I guess the market will not rally much from here without a meaningful pullback on the daily chart now. Even if the indices do not close in red tomorrow, I guess SPX may close in only a small green like today and there will be at least intraday pullback tomorrow.

As there is FED meeting minutes release tomorrow, on top of AA ER and Slovakian Parliament voting after closing bell today, I am not sure if tomorrow the market will still repeat what it did today at close to meet my prediction yesterday for two more days green after yesterday’s close.

My system gave lots of sell signals today but no buy signal at all. For example, sell signals on DIA, SPY, IWM, SSO, BGU, TNA, ERX, OIH, XLF, BAC, C, GOOG, AMZN, BIDU, SINA, ISRG, PCLN, AA, GE, LVS, CVX, CNQ, SLW, EXK…, etc. The list is too long to mention here.

Since there are sell signals across the board today on my system, I bought a lot of DIA puts, SPY puts and IWM puts before market closing bell today. I expect the market to drop tomorrow. Even if the indices do not pull back tomorrow, I am not going to cut loss and I believe the indices will still drop from here soon later.

Hope this update helps.

dsp

Diver 发表于 2011-10-11 23:37
As there are still some neighbors here paying attention to this post, I am going to update here now. ...

Jennyahwu

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Diver, the bull is running too fast. I don't have chance to jump in. what to do?

knife

Hi Diver, are you still holding your puts?

Diver

Jennyahwu 发表于 2011-10-12 19:47
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Diver, the bull is running too fast. I don't have chance to jump in. what to do?

Do not worry. The bull train will come back to pick you up. Don’t chase high now, because the risk/reward ratio is not worthy. The pullback will occur at anytime soon. I expect it will pull back to SPX 1150-1170 area. The later the pullback starts, the deeper the pullback will go. It is safe to short on any rally from now on before a meaningful pullback occurs. Do not cut loss if you fall under water unluckily this time.

Diver

knife 发表于 2011-10-12 20:22
Hi Diver, are you still holding your puts?

Yes, I am still holding my under-water puts. I will not cut loss this time. I did as I said. My system gave more sell signals today. I actually averaged down at today’s top. Please trust me. But please calculate your margin carefully. Avoid being busted into a margin call during the short squeeze.