Chan study on spy (30 min bi)

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-11-7 22:20
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morning dips formed a clear positive divergency. the rally is trong and for ...

today's rally is slightly weaker than yesterday.

expect some pull back.
support 126.5-127.4

littletiger

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11/08, cobra's comment on market:

今天比较特别的地方是SPX涨了1%，但是TICK却收在0以下，从下面的测试看：

1.明天，后天，大后天，还有两周后都不怎么牛牛友好。
2.今天收盘做空，死扛到SPX收红为止，有92%的成功率。换句话说，就是今天收盘以后的所有涨幅，平均1.4个交易日，也就是说，最迟周四都会跌回来。
3.关于这种情况的所有过去的例子，有兴趣的话可以参见8.3.8a SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2004 to 8.3.8c SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2010。其中8 out of 13都在转折点附近

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-11-8 22:31
today's rally is slightly weaker than yesterday.

expect some pull back.

big drop today.
5min positive divergency.
tomo: rebounce.

George25

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-11-9 20:41
big drop today.
5min positive divergency.
tomo: rebounce.

got rebounce today. it is weak.

overall, zone fluctuation.

st-watcher

Hi, LT:

Just found you thread and like it (I am learning Chan now).
It seems to me the Bi, daun were draw automatically on your TD chart. Could you please share where I can get those codes for TD chart of any chart for US stocks?

Thank you in advance,

littletiger

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still in zone fluctuation in 30min frame.
on 5min, strong up on 11/11. expect one more 5min up bi at least.




support: $124-125.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-14 22:04
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another gap up today;

10/4 mid-term sepculation, floor 86
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... p;extra=&page=5


and
http://hutong9.net/home.php?mod= ... o=blog&id=37057

11/1:

10/30-11/1 formed a 30min DOWN bi; may have 2nd down bi because this bi gets into the 30min xian duan zone.
11/2 starts another 30min up bi.

this up bi shows a bit 5min divergency.
expect a drop then go up to form final divergency.

cautious on up movement

littletiger

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11/23:

11/15-11/23 formed a strong 5min down trend.

5min view
see some sign of ending of this 5min downtrend and to form a larger zone.

reason: show 5min weak positive divergency. and big "jin" and small 'jin'
requirement: No more big gap down is allowed, otherwise NO bottoming/ending of 5min downtrend.

30min view;
no positive 30min divergency;
one more 30min leg down after zoning. seriously doubt about santa rally now.

littletiger

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rally from 11/28-12/5;
on 12/5;
1. see negative div.
2. all the leading stocks 1.DAX; 2.BRK.,AAPL,AMZN,GOOG,BIDU show topping sign
3. vix HL;
4. SPX; 2 reversal candle bar.

SPY support 125.5-124.5

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-12-5 23:43
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rally from 11/28-12/5;

12/8:
resistance: 125-125.5;

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-12-9 00:03
12/8:
resistance: 125-125.5;

5min down since 12/8.
it sits at 120. 3 which is .382 fib retracement of previous rally. if more drop below .382, more down.

no strong positive divergency yet.

resistance 120.8-121.3

next resistance 123.3-124

zzjiang

支持楼主，只有你一人在用缠论解盘啊，原来的 “小小鱼儿”都失踪了？

zzjiang

大盘有回抽下方5F中枢的需要，5F的二买或三买。

littletiger

zzjiang 发表于 2011-12-20 17:09
大盘有回抽下方5F中枢的需要，5F的二买或三买。

Yes, check this gap up above resistance, which is the end of previous down trend

zzjiang

zzjiang 发表于 2011-12-20 17:09
大盘有回抽下方5F中枢的需要，5F的二买或三买。

    今天大盘前半场回调整理，回拉了昨天说的5F中枢，以1F级别的盘整走势而结束，下午开始上涨，尾盘收出新高来，明天有望继续上行，注意是1F级别是否结束而形成5F级别的盘背，SSO在$46上方有压力。

zzjiang

littletiger

zzjiang 发表于 2011-12-21 17:14

is that your trading record?

littletiger

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I'll share this tidbit from another blog (won't post link to it in respect to Cobra's blog) called Vix and More.

This was back on 12/22/2010 (exactly one year ago):

"Well, consider that in five of the last eight years, the annual low in the VIX fell during the week leading up to Christmas. Last year, some may recall that the VIX made its annual low on Christmas Eve. Back in 2004, the VIX had its low for the year on December 23rd; and in both 2003 and 2006, the VIX bottomed out for the year on December 18th. Today’s low makes it five pre-Christmas bottoms in eight years."

Two trading days after that post, VIX shot up 18%.

Now, keep in mind that this is not foolproof and guaranteed. You have to look at other indicators. I did. I looked at the RSI and it is at scarily low levels, as in levels that have only occurred around 7 times in the past 4 years. So it's pretty damn low. Combined with seasonality, this is a long VIX play I will take on right here.

zzjiang

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对，我看着SSO 做的，不过出点有点急，没有操作好。



大盘延续了昨天的上涨，形成了第二个1F中枢，明天有望继续新高，注意5F盘背出现的可能，SSO在46.60上方有压力，可以先出局观望。