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发表于 2010-4-15 09:19 AM
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- The Government is providing a lot of stimulus money to spur spending.
- The Fed is pumping money in like gang busters to re-ignite the economy, and a lot of that money is going into the market.
- But, at the same time, the market's volume is concerningly low with too little of the money coming from the typical investment sources.
So, the Government and the Fed can keep things up ... but only for so long. How long is an unknown.
In spite of higher risks, inflowing liquidity is a KEY and the gov. seems to be providing that. Will traditional investment fund sources bail out, or avoid fighting the Fed and jump in taking volumes up to comfortable levels? If that happened, there could be a short squeeze and a rise to what could be considered bubble standards for the prevailing conditions. These are not normal times, and we have abnormal liquidity injections by the Fed and the Government. For historical data, it appears that an up market condition can be maintained longer as long as liquidity is pumped in. The danger levels will increase in direct proportion to the "spread" between private sector funds going into the market and the amount directly or indirectly related to the Fed and Government. At what point will that spread be too large? That is an unknown, because we have never had that kind of test before, and I think that confidence related perceptions are part of the equation. In any event, we will be at an important juncture for the next few days, possibly longer. <end of commentary> |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-4-15 09:21 AM
发表于 2010-4-15 09:21 AM
