大家说说自己的理解？－－为啥bail out 通过也是个跌，不通过也是个跌？

ByStander

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-10-3 18:03 发表 没用。第一次就通过的话，选民能把国会掀了。 而且Paulson把情况说得那么严重，国会被他吓得马上通过，只能让大家对情况更没有信心。

But the failed first time, together with 700+ drop in DOW, did hurt confidence. Once confidence is gone, it will take some time to come back. Look at VIX, it had had a good chance to reverse lower had the bill passed in the first place.

xiaobailong

原帖由 ByStander 于 2008-10-3 18:07 发表 But the failed first time, together with 700+ drop in DOW, did hurt confidence. Once confidence is gone, it will take some time to come back. Look at VIX, it had had a good chance to reverse lower had ...

Hurt confidence的是Paulson和Bernanke的恫吓言辞， 如果不是他俩把情况说得那么严重，大家怎么会害怕？

以前也没有这个700B bailout plan, 不是也好好的吗？而且这个plan是遭到了大多数人反对的，自己的愿望得到了实现，怎么会恐慌？怎么会害怕？

xiaobailong

如果第一次就通过了，那才是彻底让大家陷入恐慌之中呢，我这会儿恐怕已经把IB里的钱都取出来了。

faye

Isnt' everyone thinks that there would be a rally after the plan got passed, so the market went the other way?

OrangeTea

酷马在搞什么，看不到。。。

ethunder

re

tape

散户把盘炒得这么高，叫MM怎么进场？还没通过就炒啊抄，垃圾股狂飙

humbletrader

tape

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-10-3 18:16 发表 Hurt confidence的是Paulson和Bernanke的恫吓言辞， 如果不是他俩把情况说得那么严重，大家怎么会害怕？ 以前也没有这个700B bailout plan, 不是也好好的吗？而且这个plan是遭到了大多数人反对的，自己的愿望得到了实 ...

indeed

nmr

my understanding to today's market: shake weak hands, prepare to take off.

bluevalley

?

unlink

we are only 30 points away from the bottom. hold your last bullets tight!!!

bbsid

don't know why...
maybe shake weak hands, and push fed to reduce rate..

scare people out to get in.
[ 本帖最后由 bbsid 于 2008-10-3 20:05 编辑 ]

bigbadwolf

老大这个说法Cookie也提醒过。我现在很悲观。想不出下面有什么好消息回复市场信心。看来MM的伎俩得逞了。可能发展1）TED spread 下行 2）ER不坏，关键是outlook没有下调。

impresario100

bucks

re

Lilac

Wave 3!!!

qingbangmang

嗯哪。

plankton

原帖由 tnak 于 2008-10-3 16:52 发表 那就是，股市上大多数人是错误的。你想，大家都认为bailout会通过，而且也认为bill通过，股市会涨。大多数买股票的人在消息出来前就买了，等着捞一把呢。也有的在等着股市涨上去，好把401K等给赎出来。等这个100%肯定 ...

 

I agree with this one.