Forex/Futures ST for Week 5/20-5/24

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-23 11:18 AM

bigbadwolf 发表于 2013-5-23 11:39 AM
俺抄底澳元的极小仓位捞到了，涨势不错。

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-23 04:35 PM

Okay, a recap ... market is still in some shock state, so sit tight if you're a trend follower, i.e. keep your positions or stay without position.

Currency traders are still confused. They need clarification from both Fed and BOJ.

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-23 04:51 PM

As for equities. There is a good chance bulk of the correction is almost done ... That's why we want to sit tight until after the holiday.

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-23 04:56 PM

本帖最后由 greenback 于 2013-5-23 05:59 PM 编辑

The relation between bond and equity is all screwed up ... I don't think we can get much out of it. Anyway, JGB 10yr, whose slide causes the fire sale in Japan, can't go down anymore!

Of course the JGB 10yr's slide was due to the slide in US 10yr, which was then caused by the Fed statement. So all evils lead back to the Fed!

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-23 05:00 PM

Good day in energies ... NG acts like nothing has happened in the world!

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-23 05:27 PM

本帖最后由 greenback 于 2013-5-23 09:58 PM 编辑

Gold may have bottomed again and copper is consolidating below the S/R ... overall not that bad.

hahaa · 发表于 2013-5-23 07:23 PM

bigbadwolf 发表于 2013-5-23 10:39 AM
俺抄底澳元的极小仓位捞到了，涨势不错。

恭喜发财。大坏狼老大的这单是DT还是ST? ST的话没看出有到底的理由啊？老大能不能上张图？

bigbadwolf · 发表于 2013-5-23 09:36 PM

hahaa 发表于 2013-5-23 07:23 PM
恭喜发财。大坏狼老大的这单是DT还是ST? ST的话没看出有到底的理由啊？老大能不能上张图？

俺的钓鱼单设在0.960. 这是周线级的前低。不会一次就跌破。

hahaa · 发表于 2013-5-23 10:00 PM

bigbadwolf 发表于 2013-5-23 09:36 PM
俺的钓鱼单设在0.960. 这是周线级的前低。不会一次就跌破。

原来老大这是短抄做反弹。恭喜发财。

多谢老大，以后会注意观察周线级的前低前高。

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-24 09:47 AM

本帖最后由 greenback 于 2013-5-24 10:48 AM 编辑

We are still waiting on the side line. Last night's developments in Japan shows that any driving force to weaken JPY and strengthen NIKKEI cannot come from the JGB outflow. BOJ DOES NOT ALLOW IT!

So risk traders have to rely on other mechanisms. The decline of US 10yr bond is probably the only way. And this can rely only on stronger US and EURO economy if FED decides to start taper its QE in the fall.

Let's see whether US 10yr can really reverse its down trend here. If not, good news for NIKKEI bulls and JPY bears!

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-24 12:49 PM

Forgot to update yesterday's portfolio:

It's bad due to Japan. Most likely there will be a rebalance today ...

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-24 01:51 PM

I simply couldn't resist the urge to buy a dip in NKD. Okay, I'm using one contract to test water, with a trailing stop of 150 points, roughly at 14000 ...

Don't copy me, it's bad to your health!

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-24 02:26 PM

greenback 发表于 2013-5-24 02:51 PM
I simply couldn't resist the urge to buy a dip in NKD. Okay, I'm using one contract to test water, w ...

Looking good, revise trailing stop to be -100 points only.

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-24 03:38 PM

> If NKD goes up, does it mean JPY will continue its down trend again? Thanks!

Yeah ...

Next time please use "reply" in posting/asking.

smmoo · 发表于 2013-5-24 03:58 PM

greenback 发表于 2013-5-24 03:38 PM
> If NKD goes up, does it mean JPY will continue its down trend again? Thanks!

Yeah ...

Thank you!

greenback · 发表于 2013-5-24 05:23 PM

Just a brief recap on the daily chart.

SPX still follows the TA rule: ma20 got obeyed nicely so far. Other indices are not that nice looking. Let's see the development next week.